INTRODUCTION

Much has been achieved during the past 25 years since independence; but much still remains to be done in the forthcoming quarter of a century to the year 2020.

These future achievements will have to be made in a world context that is constantly changing and presents three particular challenges.

• Global economy: The globalization of the economy will sharpen competition and make international competitiveness essential, particularly for small, open economies.

• Population and resources: rapid population growth in some regions, together with economic expansion, will put increasing pressure on food supplies and other natural resources.

• Climate Change: the threat of unlimited rises in temperature, sea level rise, changes in the hydrological cycle and shifts in the crop production belts, as a result of massive injections of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would impact adversely on population mobility.

Social welfare

The Mauritian population is expected increase to 1.37 million by 2020, with the most economically active age groups representing about 69% of the total population. The proportion of young adults staying in the learning/training sphere will increase, resulting in the building up of a top quality work force which is expected to be enterprising, well qualified, highly skilled and productive. This will be crucial for the structural transformation of the economy. Tolerance and mutual respect for other communities and cultures will continue to be the key to social harmony.

The welfare state will be maintained but there would be changes in its organization and funding. The welfare state in Mauritius has so far not been a burden impeding sustained economic growth in the past but a major factor in the social cohesion that has been a pre-requisite for economic progress. The ageing of the population will be a problem.

Good quality education and a continuous programme of upgrading of human resources would ensure that every one contributes to socio-economic developments and shares fully in its benefits.

The slowing down in population growth should help in solving the housing problem.

Economy

Mauritius is aiming towards a thriving, competitive and modern society, where the population will enjoy a standard of living, with a GDP three times as great as in 1995.

• This higher living standard is expected from an assumed annual average growth rate of 5.6% over the next 25-year period.

• In the region, it is becoming a leading centre for international financial services, including banking, insurance and also a secure, efficient, convenient and a pleasant place in which to do business.

• Its liberal, well-regulated communication services and a highly efficient standard information technology infrastructure will be a major asset.

• Mauritius expects to be an essential node in the various international networks. These well-established networks enable Mauritius to create its niche in international profit bearing flows.

• Its adaptive and flexible education system promotes the concepts of multidisciplinarity and professionalism.

• The fragile ecological balance is being maintained through sustainable land use and integrated coastal zone management.

• Its has a well-developed supporting physical and social infrastructure.

• Mauritius frames its aspirations in terms of quality rather than quantity.

Institutions and economic operators, both from the public and private sectors, will have to think globally on international relations, diplomacy, marketing, etc. Acquiring the crucial market and political knowledge in advance, building the best contacts and positioning for a better deal will be the main elements of a winning globalization strategy.

Shifts from a custodial state to an enabling one, promoting co-operative partnership with private industry, the community and the individual will have to be encouraged. A cost-effective Government will be counter-balanced by a greater role of the private sector in the provision of essential services. Private industry will assume greater responsibility towards the community.

Agriculture

Agriculture, the first cylinder of growth, will have to include greater application of modern machinery, more efficient irrigation practices and improved crop varieties. Improved productivity while maintaining sugar production will release land for higher diversification into high-value added products of cash-crops.

Manufacturing

The next cylinder of growth is manufacturing. Modernization and consolidation will need to be encouraged with a move towards new technology and specialization to improve efficiency of production and marketing. Despite the inevitable opening of the world to free trade, Mauritius will be able to move up-market into high-value added niches. Productivity, design and quality shall be the means for Mauritius to enhance its competitiveness on international markets.

Tourism

Tourism, the third cylinder of growth, will experience rapid transformation. Expansion of the tourist industry will continue while ensuring the delicate ecological balance. Globalization will certainly fuel the demand for international travel and both domestic and international flight companies will aggressively compete to provide best services at low cost. Mauritius will continue to remain a top class quality destination and in addition a meeting place for the people in the Indian Ocean Rim nations.

Quatenary sector

The quatenary sector, comprising the new high-tech international financial services, is poised to become a lead sector and an industry in its own right and serve as the driving force behind the integration of the economy in the global market. The quaternary sector is expected to contribute to around 28% of GDP. The highly specialized and high value-added services sector, particularly the financial services comprising: off-shore banking, fund management, stock exchange, insurance, etc, will occupy a dominant role in the economic activities. Other services that are likely to come up are publishing and pre-press printing activities, production of multimedia materials, professional tele-services, data-capturing, computer software services, information services related to manufacturing and freeport services.

Political

Political stability, founded on democratic institutions coupled with honest and efficient public administration operating in a transparent and predictable manner has been the pillar of past national successes. The maintenance of both of these is vital to the 2020 aspirations.

CO₂ EMISSIONS

Carbon dioxide is the dominant greenhouse gas and it contributed to 94% of the total emissions of Mauritius. The main sources are combustion of fossil fuels for stationary energy and transport.
 
 

Energy

Total energy requirements by 2020 will be around 1.5 M TOE. Electric power requirement is estimated at 3500-4000 GWh out of which about 30% could be generated mainly from bagasse. Improving generation efficiency and energy saving would result in a reduction of 30% of imported sources.

Projections of total inland energy requirement (Tonne)
 

	Actual	Forecast
	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015	2020
LPG	34 119	43 549	55 184	70 082	81 715	95 406
Gasoline	83 958	94 421	106 438	109 013	120 172	131 330
Kerosene	42 922	28 568	193 720	421 499	686 552	1 054 652
Diesel	120 307	146 062	170 450	196 693	216 988	268 242
Fuel Oil	182 746	172 755	168 859	111 794	168 436	128 194
Coal	63 086	275 876	277 468	279 142	280 900	282 749
Bagasse	1 639 810	1 600 000	1 600 000	1 600 000	1 600 000	1 600 000
Fuel wood	1300	625	18	1	1	1
Charcoal	1200	50	2	1	1	1

The adopted policy is to increase power generation from local resources namely bagasse, a by-product of the sugar industry with the necessary investments in technology. Innovative high technologies will be explored in joint ventures. The identified strategic initiatives are:

• close monitoring of the energy requirements
• development of a master plan for energy generation from local resources to meet the increasing demands
• establish an energy saving programme

• increased use of biomass and adoption of more efficient technology such as gassification
• use of methanol as fuel
• use of solar energy, namely photo voltaic cells
• maximise hydro power generation and water utilisation
• increase power generation from coal instead of petroleum products using cleaner and more efficient technology.

Transport

The use of fossil fuels in the transportation sector accounts for about 30% of emissions in 1995 and it is projected that this will reach 40% by 2020.

Transport demand projections
 

	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015	2020
Passenger km (M)	7 663	8 618	9 694	10 819	11 926	13 009
Freight km (M tonnes)	1 541	1 854	2 253	2 735	3 305	3 952

Passenger transport will most likely be influenced by the introduction of a mass transit system by the year 2005 while freight transport is being improved through the use of vehicles with higher payloads.

Possible measures to further limit emissions are:

• trip reduction and increase in vehicle occupancy
• improving fuel efficiency
• better traffic management
• increase efficiency of freight transport
• shift from gasoline and diesel to LPG
• driver education and speed reductions.

Residential, commercial

Emissions from the residential and commercial sectors are actually standing at 148.389 Gg and expected to increase sharply. Adopted measures to-date have proved beneficial and there still exists room for improvement through the following strategies:

• further promote the use of solar water heaters
• encourage the domestic use of LPG instead of electricity produced from fossil fuels
• raise public awareness on energy saving in homes and offices
• introduce energy efficient home appliances and office equipment
• energy efficient building.

GHG emissions from this sector are minimal and result from burning of sugar cane fields prior to harvest, N₂O from artificial fertilizers, enteric fermentation and manure management.

The current policy is to promote green cane harvesting and trash blanketing while attempts are being made to reduce inputs of artificial fertilizers.

Applicable measures in Mauritius are:

• banning sugar cane burning prior to harvest
• further reduce the use of artificial fertilizers
• increase efficiency of fertilizer use
• improve manure management
• improve quality of feed to reduce enteric fermentation
• encourage integrated farming.

Mauritius with its limited land resource is not contributing to emissions through changes in land use and no significant evolution is expected in the future. It is projected that about 1% of agricultural land will be lost to urbanization. The forest areas are also not projected to change.

The forest areas declared as nature reserves and parks as well as mountain and river reserves are well protected by the necessary legislations and will continue to act as sinks.

Additional measures are:

• prevent further degradation of forests
• tree plantation programme by individuals.

• Reduce waste volume
• Promote recycling