INTRODUCTION

At the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) held in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992 leaders and decision makers, from the Republic of Mauritius along with those from over a hundred and fifty states, signed "The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change". This instrument was designed to start the process of controlling emissions of greenhouse gases so as to reduce global warming and its resultant predicted sea level rise. The potential threats and risks from climate changes, especially when combined with the already existing environmental problems are of grave concern for the Republic of Mauritius. The Republic of Mauritius is a member of the Small Island Developing States (SIDS), and is conscious of the potential dangers related to climate change. It had the honour of being the first nation to have ratified the "UN Framework Convention on Climate Change" in September 1992, thus binding itself to the terms of the Convention, when it came into force in March 1994.
 

Under the Convention articles 4 and 12, all parties are required to submit their Initial Communication three years after the Convention came into force. Mauritius was scheduled to meet its commitment by the year 1997 but since financial assistance was provided in the same year, the limit was extended to 1998.
 

The ultimate objective of the Convention, and any related legal instruments that the Conference of Parties (COP) may adopt, is to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system". Such a level should be achieved within such a time frame that will allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure food production is not threatened and to enable sustainable economic development.
 

To promote refinement of future scenarios for climate change and the transparent exchange of information, Parties to the Convention are required to publish, update periodically and make available to the COP their national inventories of sources of greenhouse gases and removals by sinks. Comparable methodologies developed internationally and agreed upon by the COP should be used. In addition to cooperation in research, Parties are mandated to take climate change into account, to the extent possible, in relevant future social, economic, and environmental policies and actions.
 

Developing countries are viewed as potentially bearing inequitable amounts of potential risks and costs from climate change; islands and nations with low-lying coastal areas will be the front-line states, as damages occur.
 

NATIONAL ACTIVITIES

Preceding the political impetus to take action, the Mauritius Meteorological Services took the initiative in May 1990 to create a multi-sectoral National Climate Committee (NCC) involving all Institutions and Organizations with an interest in climate change which included relevant ministries, parastatal bodies, the private sector and non-governmental organisations (NGOs). The National Climate Committee, was formally established in June 1991 under the chairmanship of the Prime Minister's Office with the Director of the Meteorological Services acting as co-chairperson and had the following objectives:

• monitor progress on the science of climate change
• evaluate the possible impacts of climate change on key sectors of the economy.

The NCC established four working groups and evaluated potential impacts of climate change on:

• agriculture
• coastal zones
• energy and water resources, and
• human health and welfare

A fifth working group was established within the framework of the NCC, in January 1995, to collect all available information and prepare the National Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions for the year 1990.
 

Subsequent meetings resulted in the preparation of recommendations for a Climate Change Action Plan that was submitted and approved by the Government and published in November 1998.
 

FINANCIAL AND TECHNICAL SUPPORT

The United States Country Studies Program (USCSP) for Climate Change was established to assist and provide support over fifty developing countries and countries with economies-in-transition. The objectives were to build up endogenous competence for effective participation in climate change decision-making, prepare national inventory of greenhouse gases (GHGs), assess potential impacts, develop strategies for coping and elaborate those schemes into a Climate Change Action Plan. Between 1995 and 1997 the United States Country Studies Program provided funding to assist the Government of the Republic of Mauritius to accomplish these tasks.
 

Studies conducted within this project are listed below:

• Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions for the year 1990, including sources and sinks of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and other minor greenhouse gases.
• Assessment of coastal vulnerability to sea level rise (studies at targeted sites).
• Evaluation of impacts of climate change on local agriculture with emphasis on the sugar-producing industry as well as adaptive measures.
• Preliminary assessment of the vulnerability of fresh water resources to climate change and climate variability.

Mauritius is also one amongst the eight countries identified and funded by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) to carry out "case studies" for determining the economic and development implications of greenhouse gas limitation. A full analysis of possible mitigation measures and calculations of their cost-effectiveness is being done under the umbrella of this study.
 

Under the project "GF/2200-97-42 Mauritius: "Enabling Activities for the preparation of Initial National Communication related to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)", the Republic of Mauritius was provided with additional financial support by the Global Environment Facility (GEF) through the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), its implementing agency, to complete its National Initial Communication.
 

The Republic of Mauritius, a group of islands of volcanic origin, has a population of over 1.1 million for an area of about 2000 km². About 46% of its area is agricultural, 31% constitutes forests, shrubs and grazing land while the remaining 23% is devoted to settlements, infrastructure and inland water resource systems. The country enjoys a mild maritime climate with summer extending from November to April and winter from June to September. Mauritius, the main island, receives an annual average rainfall of 2100 mm, with about 70% occurring in summer. Mean maximum temperature peaks to about 31º C in the coastal areas in summer while mean minimum temperature goes down to about 14º C over the high grounds in winter.
 

Mauritius was classified among the uppermiddle income countries with a per capita income of US$ 3442 in 1995 and Human Development Index of 0.831. The agricultural sector accounted for 9.5% of GDP while the share of the manufacturing and quatenary sectors stood at 23.7% and 11% respectively. For the same year, the tourism sector represented some 15% of total foreign exchange earnings.
 

The country depends on imported energy carriers and in 1995, petroleum products accounted for 58.2% of total primary energy, coal for 4.8% while the share from renewable sources were 37%. Final energy consumption was 758 000 Tonnes Oil Equivalent (TOE).
 

The inventory of greenhouse gases (GHG) has been calculated on the basis of 1995 data, which closely resembled the 1994 figures and is more reliable. More than 95% of total emissions originated from energy production, transportation and manufacturing industries. The per capita Carbon emission was 0.434
 
 
 

	CO2	CH4	N2O	NOX	CO	NMVOC	SO2
Total national emissions/removals	1738.432	4.600	0.727	10.180	67.003	15.481	13.369
1. Fuel combustion         activities	1736.852	0.511	0.040	9.808	67.003	7.755	13.369
- Energy industries	655.575	0.044	0.009	1.959	7.629	0.076	8.795
- Manufacturing industries and construction	277.655	0.151	0.021	1.224	18.442	0.260	2.942
- Transport	644.977	0.027	0.005	0.461	36.183	6.849	1.538
- Other sectors	148.389	0.289	0.005	0.164	4.749	0.570	0.094
- Other lubricants	10.256	NIL	NIL	NIL	NIL	NIL	NIL
2. Industrial processes	1.580	NIL	0.279	0.372	NIL	7.726	NIL
3. Solvent and other product use	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
4. Agriculture	NIL	0.683	0.403	NIL	NIL	NIL	NIL
5. Land use change and forestry	-221.360	NIL	NIL	NIL	NIL	NIL	NIL
6. Waste	NIL	3.406	NIL	NIL	NIL	NIL	NIL
7. Other (international bunker)	670.285

Total energy requirements will be around 1.5 M TOE out of which 3500 - 4000 GWh electricity will be produced. Carbon dioxide emissions are projected to be around 6 x 10⁶ tonnes. Measures identified to reduce GHG emissions include:

• an increased use of biomass and other renewable energy sources
• a shift from gasoline and diesel to LPG, together with other measures such as improving fuel use efficiency, trip reduction and better traffic management in the transport sector
• the promotion of the use of solar water heaters, the introduction of energy efficiency home appliances and office equipment and increased public awareness on energy saving within the residential and commercial sectors
• the banning of burning sugar cane fields prior to harvest, reduction of the use of artificial fertilizers and encouraging integrated farming.

NEEDS FOR FURTHER TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE

One result of the assessment work conducted in Mauritius so far points out to the need for further investigation, research and analysis, as well as for technical training and transfer of environmentally friendly technologies from developed countries. Some funding will be made available through the United Nations under the Convention through the Global Environmental Facility, but other bilateral and multilateral sources must be tapped, both regionally and internationally. Specific areas, which need further attention and skilled personnel, include:

• more sophisticated equipment to monitor coastal zone management activities
• training in predictive computer modeling and interpretation of models for global climate change scenarios, storm surge run-up, and integrated assessment models which include economic as well as meteorological data
• hardware and training in photovoltaic solar energy (installation, maintenance, trouble-shooting and repair) as well as other appropriate renewable energy technologies
• further research on optimal varieties of sugar cane including development, dissemination and experimentation with root stock to determine which cultivars may be able to withstand the predicted climatic changes
• increased usage of geographic information system software and further advanced training so that Mauritius can create layered resource maps in order to help planners update and fine-tune their awareness of vulnerabilities on a periodic basis

The vulnerability of key socio-economic sectors has been assessed and adaptation measures identified and evaluated. Incremental and climate change scenarios created from General Circulation Model outputs (GCM) and available meteorological data were used for the assessment. The accelerated sea-level rise projections adopted were 0.5, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 m.
 

The degree of vulnerability of the different sectors is very variable with the two most vulnerable being the coastal zone and the agricultural sectors. Accelerated sea-level rise is expected to result in land loss, beach erosion, damages to coastal infrastructure, degradation of coral reefs and loss of wetlands. Agricultural production will be affected through higher climate variability and extreme weather events with changes in crop development and phenology, more competition from weeds, higher incidence of pests and diseases and indirectly from availability of water resources and changes in soil physical and chemical properties. Coastal agriculture could be affected by land degradation. The risk of intrusion of salt water in coastal acquirers exists. Increased sea surface temperature, changes in nutrient availability, weather patterns, thermocline depth and warming of ocean basins will affect the fisheries industry. Some negative effects on the health and well being of the population are expected. Biodiversity will change with the possible loss of some species.
 

The country, due to constraints associated to small island states cannot adopt all identified adaptive measures. Some of these measures will be onerous with serious consequences on the economy of the country. Retreat and abandonment options to safeguard coastal resources are not applicable. Hence the protection and accommodation options would be more appropriate. Adaptation within the agricultural sector will come through changes in management and infrastructure rather than changes in land use. Adaptation measures for water resources are better management and the use of "gray" water. The best option for forestry and biodiversity is a closer monitoring to prevent further degradation of the situation.
 

The present network of systematic observation and research comprises data collection and studies on the impacts of climate change on namely agriculture, energy policy and coastal zone. The need for more in-depth research is highlighted and the institutions involved are listed. Data collection and management need to be reviewed so as to improve on-going studies and to enable more comprehensive research and analysis. Capacity building is essential and need to be encouraged so as to ensure the continuity of climate change activities.
 

Formal and informal education and training are current tools used to raise awareness of the entire population on climate change issues and its possible effects. Informal education consists of discussions, debates, public talks and research seminars. Posters, pamphlets, newsletters and technical papers are issued on an ad-hoc basis. Special consideration to the female population, who is the focal points of families in the educational processes, is highlighted. Climate change has yet to be included in the curricula of the formal education system.
 

The population of the Republic of Mauritius is projected at 1.37 million by 2020 with a well-qualified, highly skilled work force, which would be enterprising and productive. The population would enjoy a higher GDP; three times that of 1995.
 

RESPONSE MEASURES

Analyses indicate that a cautious way to deal with climate change is through a portfolio of activities. Targeted response measures fall into three distinct categories:

• The first is improvement of knowledge, which will enable the available resource persons from all sectors to better model and predict national and regional circumstantial climate change issues.
• The second category includes those responses, which could decrease emissions and are herein considered as "mitigation" options. Many of the strategies recommended in the energy and transport sectors are "no regrets" measures, which will be beneficial both economically and environmentally, and should thus be considered as advantageous to the nation. Many of these also fall within stated priorities, previously articulated by the Government in other planning documents.
• The third type of response measure is "adaptation" and it is assumed that many of the stimulated effects under climate change scenarios are inevitable and will come to pass, so that people will have to accomodate to them and adjust their lifestyles and practices accordingly. Adaptation is addressed in relation to the various sectors that will be most directly and severely impacted with suggested strategies, as well as cross-sectoral recommendations.

CONCLUSION

It is important that policy-makers support continuous collection of data and the establishment of monitoring programs. Taking no actions, delaying them becomes a decision in itself, with costs multiplied in terms of future natural disasters such as an increase in cyclones and droughts, flood damages from storm surges, and a variety of other potential hazards resulting from climate change.