The Arctic sea ice area will advance at almost same speed as the last year.
The sea routes of Russian side will close around October 10, and the Canadian side except for Canadian archipelago will close around October 22.
The Arctic sea ice area will start advancing at an early date. Advance speed in October and November will be almost same as the last year.
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Sea routes of Russian side will close around October 10, which is one week later than the last year. The route of Canadian side except for Canadian archipelago will close around October 22, which is two weeks earlier than the last year.
We use the Logistic Regression method to predict the ice extent using the ice-free days during March and August. This prediction is basing on the relation between the speeds of summer ice retreat and fall ice advance (see Fall report of the last year).
Arctic Sea Ice Forecast 2018
Fall Report: Forecast of ice advance
September 10, 2018
Noriaki Kimura, Shiau Chou Jen, Hiroyasu Hasumi
Figure 1. Animation of predicted Arctic ice extent from September 10 to November 30.
Figure 2. Predicted sea ice concentration on October 1, November 1 and November 30.
If you have any questions, please contact kimura_n@aori.u-tokyo.ac.jp
This work was supported by
Arctic Challenge for Sustainability Project.
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