The Arctic sea ice area will advance at slower speed than the last year especially in the Canadian side.
The sea routes of Russian side will close around October 13, and the Canadian side except for Canadian archipelago will close around October 26.
Arctic sea ice area reached its minimum on September 17 and started advancing. In the Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian Seas, the advance speed will be slower than the last year. On the other hand around the Severnaya Zemlya, the ice area will advance at a faster speed compared with the last year.
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Sea routes of Russian side will close around October 13. The route of Canadian side except for Canadian archipelago will close around October 26, which is one month later than the last year.
This prediction is basing on the relation between the speeds of summer ice retreat and fall ice advance (see 2017 Fall Report).
Arctic Sea Ice Forecast 2019
Fall Report: Forecast of ice advance
September 30, 2019
Noriaki Kimura, Hiroyasu Hasumi
Figure 1. Animation of predicted Arctic ice extent from October 1 to November 30.
Figure 2. Predicted sea ice concentration on October 1, November 1 and November 30.
If you have any questions, please contact kimura_n@aori.u-tokyo.ac.jp
This work was supported by
Arctic Challenge for Sustainability Project.
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