The Arctic sea ice area will advance with almost same speed of the last year.
The sea routes of Russian side will close around October 7, and the Canadian side except for Canadian archipelago will close around October 20.
Figure 1. Animation of predicted Arctic ice extent from the October 1 to the November 30.
Figure 3. Predicted sea ice concentration on October 1, November 1 and November 30.
The Arctic sea ice area is advancing since the seasonal minimum on September 10 with almost same speed of the last year. Sea Routes both Russian and Canadian sides will close by the end of October.
Sea ice concentration in mid-September correlates strongly with that after October (Figure 2). We predicted the Arctic sea ice area from coming October 1 to November 30 based on the ice concentration on September 22, by the linear regression analysis used the data for 2003-2016.
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Figure 2. Correlation coefficient between the ice concentration on September 22 and that after October 1.
Arctic Sea Ice Forecast 2016
Fall Report：September 29, 2016
Noriaki Kimura, Hiroyasu Hasumi
Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The university of Tokyo
If you have any questions, please contact kimura_n@aori.u-tokyo.ac.jp
This work was partly supported by
Arctic Challenge for Sustainability Project.
