²áµî¤ÎCCSR¥»¥ß¥Ê¡¼ (2009Ç¯ÅÙ)

2010Ç¯3·î26Æü(¶â) 15:00 - 16:30
Jim Kinter (Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies)

¹Ö±éÂêÌÜ: Climate Modeling at the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA): Exploring High Resolution and its Impact on Predictability
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The Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) is dedicated to exploring, establishing and quantifying the predictability of sub-seasonal to decadal variability in a changing climate. COLA also explores ways that improved understanding of climate predictability can lead to improved climate predictions and climate change projects that benefit global society. The presentation will provide an overview of COLA activities in the area of climate modeling, with an emphasis on what can be gained by exploring the limits of model resolution. Preliminary results from the recent Project Athena experiments with the NICAM and ECMWF IFS models will be presented.

2010Ç¯3·î10Æü(¿å) 15:00 - 17:00
Prof. In-Sik Kang (Seoul National University)

¹Ö±éÂêÌÜ: MJO prediction and predictability
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Presented in the seminar are MJO prediction skills of various prediction methods ranging from statistical models to dynamical models. Also various initialization methods for AGCM and CGCM are introduced with a focus on MJO prediction. Improvement of MJO prediction can be achieved not only by improving the model, particularly a coupled GCM, but also by developing a suitable initialization method for its ensemble prediction.

2010Ç¯2·î12Æü(¶â) 14:00 - 15:00
Prof. A. Berger (Institut d'Astronomie et de Geophysique G. Lemaitre, Universite catholique de Louvain, Chemin du Cyclotron 2, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium)

¹Ö±éÂêÌÜ: Contribution of insolation and CO2 concentration to the interglacials before and after Mid-Brunhes Event
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Reconstructions of climate from marine sediment and ice cores show that the amplitude of glacial-interglacial climate cycles increased substantially after the Mid-Brunhes Event, about 430,000 years ago. Interglacial periods prior to the event appear to be characterized by larger continental ice sheets, lower sea level, cooler temperatures in Antarctica, and lower atmospheric CO2 concentrations, relative to the more recent interglacials. Here we use an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to assess the contributions of insolation and greenhouse gas concentrations to the climate associated with the peaks of all the interglacials over the past 800,000 years. Our simulations recreate the expected warmer interglacials after the Mid-Brunhes Event and suggest that later interglacials are warmer primarily because of increased global mean temperatures during Northern Hemisphere winters. This warmth arises from increased insolation during this season, relative to the interglacials that preceded the Mid-Brunhes Event, in conjunction with increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The effect of boreal winters and of the Southern Hemisphere, which is also warmer during austral winters, on carbon cycle should be assessed when investigating the underlying causes of the higher CO2 concentrations during the later interglacials.
Reference: Yin Q. Z. and Berger A., 2010. Insolation and CO2 concentration contribution to the interglacials before and after Mid-Brunhes Event. Nature Geoscience, in press.

2009Ç¯12·î18Æü(¶â) 14:00 - 15:30
Bo Wu¡ÊLASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China¡Ë

¹Ö±éÂêÌÜ: What are the mechanisms that modulate the circulation over the western North Pacific during ENSO mature winter and decaying summer?
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The air-sea interaction in the Indo-Pacific plays an essential role in the interannual variability of the East Asian Monsoon. Based on observational analysis and numerical simulation, some key issues associated with the air-sea interaction in the Indo-Pacific that impact the East Asian Monsoon are investigated.

1. Seasonally evolving dominant modes of the East Asian Monsoon
Two dominant modes of the East Asian monsoon correspond to post-ENSO year and ENSO turnabout, respectively. In the first mode, during the El Ni«Ðo decaying summer, negative precipitation anomalies and associated anticyclone anomalies appears in the western North Pacific (WNP). The anticyclone anomalies cause the positive precipitation anomalies extending from the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley and Huaihe River valley to the southern Japan. During the subsequent fall, cyclone anomalies replace the anticyclone anomalies and cover the WNP. The cyclone anomalies cause the negative precipitation anomalies over southeastern China. The anomalous precipitation pattern persists during the following winter and spring. In the second mode, during El Ni«Ðo developing summer, twin cyclonic couplet stimulated by the positive heating over the equatorial central Pacific enhance the WNP monsoon. Meanwhile, an anomalous anticyclone appears in the tropical northern Indian Ocean. During the following fall and spring, the anomalous anticyclone gradually moves to the South China Sea and WNP. The anticyclone intensifies the precipitation over southeastern China through increasing moisture transport. The anomalous anticyclone and associated precipitation anomalies maintain during the following spring through local positive air-sea feedback.

2. Relative roles of the Indian Ocean and local SSTA in forcing circulation anomalies over the WNP during El Ni«Ðo decaying summers
Numerical experiments indicate that the WNPAC is maintained by the combined effects of the local forcing of the negative SSTA in the WNP and the remote forcing from the Indian Ocean basin-wide warming. The local SSTA forcing is crucial for the WNPAC in early summer. With the attenuation of the negative SSTA, the local forcing gradually weakens as the summer progresses. With the development of the WNP monsoon trough, the remote forcing from the tropical Indian Ocean, on the other hand, strengthens from June to August. From the prediction point of view, the negative SSTA in the WNP may be a better predictor for the East Asian summer monsoon. This is because the WNPAC exerts a dominant impact on the EASM in June, when the climatological Meiyu-Baiu rain band is strongest.

3. Asymmetry of circulation anomalies in the WNP between El Ni«Ðo and La Ni«Ða
The asymmetry of the WNP low-level atmospheric circulation anomalies between El Ni«Ðo and La Ni«Ða mature winter is examined. An anomalous cyclone (WNPC) center during La Ni«Ða tends to shift westward relative to an anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC) center during El Ni«Ðo. Two factors may contribute to this asymmetric response. The first factor is the longitudinal shifting of El Ni«Ðo and La Ni«Ða anomalous heating. The second factor is attributed to the amplitude asymmetry of SST anomalies (SSTA) in the WNP viz. the amplitude of local cold SSTA during El Ni«Ðo is greater than that of warm SSTA during La Ni«Ða. The asymmetry of SSTA is originated from the asymmetric SSTA tendencies during the ENSO developing summer. Although both the precipitation and surface wind anomalies are approximately symmetric, the surface latent heat flux anomalies are highly asymmetric over the key WNP region, where the mean wind speed is small. Both the anomalous westerly during El Ni«Ðo and the anomalous easterly during La Ni«Ða in the region lead to an enhanced surface evaporation, strengthening (weakening) the cold (warm) SSTA in situ during El Ni«Ðo (La Ni«Ða). The asymmetric circulation in the WNP leads to significantly different precipitation anomalies over southeastern China, viz. the precipitation anomaly during the El Ni«Ðo mature winter is greater than its La Ni«Ða counterpart.

2009Ç¯11·î20Æü(¶â) 14:30 - 16:00
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¹Ö±éÂêÌÜ: CSU AGCM¤ÎÈóÀÅÎÏ³Ø¥â¥Ç¥ë²½¤ÈÀµ20ÌÌÂÎ³Ê»Ò¾å¤Î¿·¤·¤¤Î¥»¶²½Ë¡¤Ë¤Ä¤¤¤Æ
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2009Ç¯11·î9Æü(·î) 14:00 - 15:30
Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi (Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centres)

¹Ö±éÂêÌÜ: Modelling ice-shelf/ocean interaction
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Much of the uncertainty in projected climate change impacts on sea level rise and ocean salt budgets is due to limited understanding of the dynamical processes in the cryosphere between grounded ice sheets and the ocean. Here, the effect of climate change on the mass balance of ice shelves and bottom water formation is investigated using a terrain-following three-dimensional numerical ocean model. The Rutgers version of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) was modified to simulate the thermodynamic processes beneath ice shelves, including direct basal processes and frazil ice dynamics. Frazil ice was implemented in ROMS by modifying the existing sediment code. As such, frazil ice crystals suspended in the water column are transported by solving the advection-diffusion equation with additional terms for buoyant vertical rising, and source/sinks due to freezing/melting, nucleation and precipitation. Results show that, under the ice shelf, frazil ice forms in a supercooled water layer adjacent to the ice shelf base that forms when buoyant water, created through direct basal ice-ocean interaction, begins to rise.
The model is setup for both the Amery Ice Shelf and Mertz Ice Tongue regions in East Antarctica and is forced with tides, seasonal winds and relaxation to seasonal lateral boundary climatologies. The open ocean surface fluxes are modified by an imposed climatological seaice cover that includes the seasonal effect of polynyas. Results from both the Amery Ice Shelf and Mertz Ice Tongue models show that the circulation in the regions adjacent to the ice shelves are seasonal variable and is controlled by the formation of dense waters from coastal polynyas.
The circulation and basal melting and freezing in the Amery Ice Shelf region show good agreement with glaciological and oceanographic observations. Strong horizontal and thermohaline ("ice-pump") circulation is primarily driven by melting and refreezing of the ice shelf interacting with High Salinity Shelf Water. The net basal melt rate is 45 Gt year1 (0.7 m ice year-1), which represents 67 % of the total mass loss of the Amery Ice Shelf. The total amount of refreezing is 5.3 Gt year1, of which 70 % is due to frazil accretion. The seasonal variability of the basal melt/freeze (up to +-1 m ice year1) within 100 km of the open ocean is the same magnitude as the area-averaged melt rates. The annual averaged bottom water formation rates are 1 Sv to the west of the Amery, in the vicinity of Cape Darnley. Direct comparison with glaciological observations shows that ice-shelf models that include frazil processes improve the simulated pattern of marine ice accretion. Simulations without ice-shelf/ocean thermodynamic processes overestimate bottom water formation by up to 2.8 times as much as simulations with ice-shelf/ocean thermodynamic processes, due to the missing buoyant freshwater from the melting ice shelf. Climate change sensitivity studies suggest that an ocean warming of 1 degree C above present day temperatures can potentially remove the Amery Ice Shelf in 500 years, solely due to increased basal melting, and can also lead to a significant decrease in the formation of bottom water.
This research contributes to understanding how interaction between ice shelves and various forcing mechanisms can lead to changes in basal melt/freeze and dense water formation, which has major implications for the stability of ice shelves, sea level rise, and the salt budget of the global oceans.

2009Ç¯10·î30Æü(¶â) 16:10 - 17:40
¿¿Æé ½ÊÏº(¥×¥ê¥ó¥¹¥È¥óÂç³Ø)

¹Ö±éÂêÌÜ: Remote sensing of Radiative Feedback: Comparison with Model Simulations
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2009Ç¯10·î2Æü(¶â) 14:30 - 16:30
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2009Ç¯10·î2Æü(¶â) 10:00 - 12:00
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2009Ç¯10·î1Æü(ÌÚ) 15:30 - 17:30
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2009Ç¯9·î11Æü(¶â) 13:30 - 15:30
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¾ì½ê: Áí¹ç¸¦µæÅï¡¡4¥»¥ó¥¿¡¼¶¦ÍÑ2³¬²ñµÄ¼¼ 270
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2009Ç¯9·î10Æü(ÌÚ) 13:00 - 17:00
Yoo-Geun Ham (Seoul National University)

¹Ö±éÂêÌÜ: Impact of Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs) on climate simulation and predictability

Daehyun Kim (Seoul National University)

¹Ö±éÂêÌÜ: Development of a Bulk Mass Flux Convection Scheme for Climate Model and Its Impact on Simulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation
¾ì½ê: Áí¹ç¸¦µæÅï¡¡4¥»¥ó¥¿¡¼¶¦ÍÑ2³¬²ñµÄ¼¼ 270

2009Ç¯9·î7Æü(·î) 10:00 - 15:00
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¾ì½ê: Áí¹ç¸¦µæÅï¡¡4¥»¥ó¥¿¡¼¶¦ÍÑ2³¬²ñµÄ¼¼ 270

2009Ç¯8·î7Æü(¶â) 13:30 - 15:00
Dr. R. Krishnan (Head, Climate and Global Modelling Division, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)

¹Ö±éÂêÌÜ: Internal-feedbacks from monsoon-midlatitude interactions during droughts in the Indian summer monsoon
¾ì½ê: Áí¹ç¸¦µæÅï¡¡4¥»¥ó¥¿¡¼¶¦ÍÑ2³¬²ñµÄ¼¼ 270
Í×»Ý:
Results from a 20-year simulation of a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced with climatological SST, along with simplified model experiments and supplementary data-diagnostics are used to investigate internal-feedbacks arising from monsoon-midlatitude interactions during droughts in the Indian summer monsoon. The AGCM simulation not only shows a fairly realistic mean monsoon rainfall distribution and large-scale circulation; but also exhibits remarkable interannual variations of precipitation over the sub-continent - with the 20-year run showing incidence of 4 monsoon-droughts.
The present findings indicate that the internally-forced droughts in the AGCM emanate largely from prolonged monsoon-breaks which occur on sub-seasonal time-scales; and involve dynamical feedbacks between monsoon convection and extra-tropical circulation anomalies. In this feedback, the suppressed monsoon convection is shown to induce Rossby-wave dispersion in the summer-time sub-tropical westerlies; and sets-up an anomalous quasi-stationary circulation pattern extending across continental Eurasia in the middle and upper-troposphere. This pattern comprises of a cyclonic anomaly over West-Central Asia (WCA) and Indo-Pak; a meridionally deep anticyclonic anomaly over East-Asia (~ 100oE) and a cyclonic anomaly further ahead over the Far-East. The results suggest that the anchoring of the WCA cyclonic anomaly by the stagnant ridge located downstream over East-Asia, induces anomalous cooling in the middle and upper-troposphere through cold-air advection which reduces the meridional thermal-contrast over the sub-continent. Additionally, the intrusion of the dry extra-tropical winds into northwest India can decrease the convective instability, so that the suppressed convection can in turn weaken the monsoon-flow. The sustenance of monsoon-breaks, through such monsoon-mid-latitude feedbacks, can generate drought-like conditions over India.

2009Ç¯7·î27Æü(¶â) 15:30 - 17:00
Áý»³ ·¼, ½ÅÎ¤ ¾» (Åìµþ³¤¾å¸¦µæ½ê)

¹Ö±éÂêÌÜ: ¥â¥ó¥Æ¥«¥ë¥íÂæÉ÷·ÐÏ©¥â¥Ç¥ë

²£°æ ³Ð (CCSR)

¹Ö±éÂêÌÜ: ÂæÉ÷genesis potential¤È²¹ÃÈ²½

×¢ÅÄ ½íÏº (CCSR)

¹Ö±éÂêÌÜ: Åì¥¢¥¸¥¢»°¶Ëµ¤¸õÊÐº¹¥Ñ¥¿¡¼¥ó¤È¤Ï?
¾ì½ê: Áí¹ç¸¦µæÅï¡¡4¥»¥ó¥¿¡¼¶¦ÍÑ2³¬²ñµÄ¼¼ 270

2009Ç¯7·î3Æü(¶â) 13:30 - 15:00
Rosbintarti Kartika Lestari(CCSR)

¹Ö±éÂêÌÜ: The Linear Response of South China Sea monsoon to the external forcing
¾ì½ê: Áí¹ç¸¦µæÅï¡¡4¥»¥ó¥¿¡¼¶¦ÍÑ2³¬²ñµÄ¼¼ 270
Í×»Ý:
A self-consistent mechanistic model is considered for the response of the South China Sea (SCS) monsoon to the external forcing. The feedback parameters are evaluated by using the GCM control and sensitivity experiments, and observation data of the NCEP reanalysis, CMAP precipitation and ICOADS SST. Westerly anomaly induced over the SCS from the surrounding weather system is regarded as an external forcing for the SCS monsoon. The westerly anomaly intensities the SCS monsoon through the enhanced moisture transport and the Convection-Wind-Evaporation (CWE) feedback but suppresses it through the reduction of the SCS SST. The former effect is found to prevail over the latter, so that the westerly anomaly significantly enhances the SCS monsoon. In return, the SCS monsoon enhances westerly anomaly, and the actual westerly anomaly is estimated to be about 40 percents greater than the external forcing in this analysis. Thus, the westerly anomaly has a positive feedback from the SCS monsoon, whereas it negatively correlates with the SCS SST.

2009Ç¯7·î1Æü(¿å) 15:30 - 17:00
Dr. Vidyunmala Veldore (TERI, The Energy Resources Institute, New Delhi, India.)

¹Ö±éÂêÌÜ: Ongoing Climate Research at TERI
¾ì½ê: Áí¹ç¸¦µæÅï¡¡4¥»¥ó¥¿¡¼¶¦ÍÑ2³¬²ñµÄ¼¼ 270

2009Ç¯6·î29Æü(·î) 14:30 - 16:00
So-Young Yim (Seoul National University)

¹Ö±éÂêÌÜ: Decadal Changes in the Relationship between East Asian-Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon System and ENSO in the Mid-1990s
¾ì½ê: Áí¹ç¸¦µæÅï¡¡4¥»¥ó¥¿¡¼¶¦ÍÑ2³¬²ñµÄ¼¼ 270
Í×»Ý:
The decadal change in the summer monsoon system over the east Asian and western North Pacific is prominent since 1979 and predominantly associated with the sea surface temperature (SST) distribution of equatorial central and eastern Pacific. The monsoon system in the 1979-1993 period is mainly linked to the warming of SST in the NINO3 region (150¡ëW-90¡ëW, 5¡ëS-5¡ëN),which is associated with a combination of developing and decaying ENSO phase. On the other hand, that in the period 1994-2006 is associated to the SST warming in the NINO4 region (160¡ëE-150¡ëW, 5¡ëS-5¡ëN) during the developing ENSO phase. In other words, a decadal change in the principal patterns of rainfall variability over the east Asia and WNP region is associated with the shift of decadal-scale changes in tropical Pacific SST variability. These features are obvious in both observations and model results.

2009Ç¯6·î19Æü(¶â) 13:30 - 15:00
Byung-Ju Sohn (CCSR/Seoul National University; Professor)

¹Ö±éÂêÌÜ: Intensified Hadley and Walker circulations over the last three decades
¾ì½ê: Áí¹ç¸¦µæÅï¡¡4¥»¥ó¥¿¡¼¶¦ÍÑ2³¬²ñµÄ¼¼ 270
Í×»Ý:
The interannual variations of the atmospheric circulation over the tropical oceans were investigated by using the divergent component of water vapor transport field (Q_D) derived from the Special Sensor for Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and the global reanalysis data such as the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-year Reanalysis (ERA40). Introducing an effective wind (V_E) to remove the effect of trend in the total precipitable water (W), the divergent component of effective wind (V_E) can be obtained from V_E = Q_D/W, and its associated divergence (&nabla· V_E) and effective velocity potential (&Phi_E) are calculated from the obtained V_E and a relationship of (&nabla· V_E = - &nabla²&Phi_E ), respectively. Since the total precipitable water resides mainly in the lower tropospheric layer, the effective wind may largely reflect a divergent wind of a lower tropospheric boundary layer. The obtained effective winds (V_E) and the convergence of effective wind ( - &nabla· V_E) are then used for calculating the Hadley and Walker circulation index.
The Hadley circulation index obtained from both ERA40 and NCEP reanalysis indicates the intensifying trend during the boreal winter whereas no clear trend is found during the boreal summer, although there is an increasing trend after 1979. On the other hand, the Walker circulation index shows a weakened trend for last fifty years, consistent with recent fluctuations of El Nino signal. Despite larger fluctuation signals found during El Nino years, an opposite trend after 1979. The recent trend of Walker circulation noted in water vapor transport field may suggest that the tropics have experienced more extreme climate over the last three decades.

2009Ç¯6·î18Æü(ÌÚ) 10:30 - 12:00
Kentaroh Suzuki (Colorado State University)

¹Ö±éÂêÌÜ: A study of warm cloud microphysics using multi-sensor satellite observations and cloud-resolving models
¾ì½ê: Áí¹ç¸¦µæÅï 320
Í×»Ý:
Warm cloud microphysics is an important process that determines how the cloud water falls from the atmosphere and controls optical properties of liquid clouds, also providing a pathway through which aerosols influence the clouds. The recent emergence of CloudSat provides the first opportunity to observe the vertical cloud structure on the global scale. CloudSat is also designed to fly as part of the satellite constellation referred to as A-Train, which includes active and passive sensors for simultaneously observing various aspects of the cloud-to-precipitation processes. The combined use of the new multi-sensor observations offers a unique opportunity to obtain an entirely new insight into the warm cloud microphysical processes. Some recent attempts to combine these sensors of the A-Train are highlighted in this talk for investigating several key aspects of the warm rain formation processes. This includes joint CloudSat, MODIS and AMSR-E analysis to diagnose the particle growth processes, to infer the time-scale of rain formation and to examine the drop collection processes. The vertical cloud structure revealed from CloudSat is also combined with MODIS multi-wavelength analysis to obtain more detailed understandings of how the particle growth processes relate to rain formation. These analysis methods can also be applied to the results from cloud-resolving models and compared with the observations. I would like to discuss how these comparisons can be used for evaluating the cloud parameterizations in the models and for better understanding the observed characteristics of warm rain processes.

2009Ç¯5·î27Æü(¿å) 10:30 - 12:00
Hironori Fudeyasu (IPRC / SOEST, University of Hawaii)

¹Ö±éÂêÌÜ: Multiscale Interactions in the Lifecycle of a Tropical Cyclone Simulated in a Global Cloud-System-Resolving Model NICAM
¾ì½ê: Áí¹ç¸¦µæÅï¡¡4¥»¥ó¥¿¡¼¶¦ÍÑ2³¬²ñµÄ¼¼ 270
Í×»Ý:
The global cloud-system-resolving model, NICAM, successfully simulated the lifecycle of Tropical Storm (TS) Isobel that formed over the Timor Sea in the austral summer 2006. The multiscale interactions in the lifecycle of the simulated storm were analyzed in this study.
*Large scale aspects
The large-scale aspects that affected Isobel¡Çs lifecycle will be presented in the first half. The westerly wind burst (WWB) accompanying the onset of a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event over the Java Sea enhanced the cyclonic shear and convergence in the lower troposphere, providing the pre-conditioned large-scale environment for the genesis of Isobel. In the subsequent evolution, five stages are identified for the simulated Isobel, namely, the initial eddy, intensifying, temporary weakening, re-intensifying, and decaying stages. At the initial eddy stage, small-/meso-scale cyclonic vortices (eddies) developed in the zonally-elongated rainband organized in a convergent shear-line in the lower troposphere. As the MJO propagated eastward, the cyclonic eddies moved southward with intensifying convective activities, showing the signal of cyclogenesis over the Timor Sea. In an environment with weak vertical shear and low-level strong cyclonic vorticity enhanced by the trade easterlies and WWB associated with the MJO, a typical tropical cyclone structure appeared, leading to the development of tropical storm Isobel (intensifying stage). An approaching subtropical high from the southwest exposed Isobel to strong vertical shear and resulted in strong low-level large-scale stretching deformation field over Isobel as the WWB of MJO propagated eastward. This change led to the development of asymmetric structure in the inner core of Isobel and interrupted its intensification, causing a temporary weakening (temporary weakening stage). Therefore, the MJO had both positive and negative effects on the simulated Isobel¡Çs lifecycle. As the vertical shear weakened and changed the direction due to the development of upper-level anticyclonic circulation, Isobel re-intensified in response to the eyewall reformation process as a result of the inward spiraling outer rainband that was formed downshear of the vertical shear vector (re-intensifying stage). Finally Isobel decayed due to the land effect as it approached the land and made landfall in northwest Australia (decaying stage).
*Mesoscale process on genesis
In the second part, both the mesoscale and storm-scale processes in the lifecycle of the simulated Isobel will be presented. In the preconditioned favorable environment over the Java Sea, mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) developed in the mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) enhanced convection and triggered the genesis of vortical hot towers (VHTs). The merging of multiple VHTs was found to play an important role in the formation of MCV with concentric PV monolith structure, leading to the genesis of Isobel. The genesis of Isobel was accomplished by the multiscale vortex interaction and showed a bottom-up development.
*Storm-scale process on intensification
After its genesis, Isobel developed into a tropical storm over the Timor Sea under the favorable environment. The system scale intensification (SSI) process was found to result primarily from the response of the mid-upper-level secondary circulation to the axisymmetric condensational heating in the eyewall. A potential vorticity (PV) budget analysis indicated that the cyclonic PV sources including condensing PV due to the vertical divergence and inward PV flux were enhanced by the mid-upper-level secondary circulation, leading to the intensification of Isobel. Under the unfavorable environment during the temporal weakening stage, the development of asymmetric structure almost terminated the SSI process due to the loss of axisymmetric diabatic heating and thus interrupted the intensification of Isobel. Later on, Isobel experienced axisymmetrization and the eyewall reformation with the recovery of eyewall convection, leading to the SSI process to operate effectively and thus the re-intensification of Isobel.

2009Ç¯4·î28Æü(²Ð) 15:00 - 17:00
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¾ì½ê: Áí¹ç¸¦µæÅï¡¡4¥»¥ó¥¿¡¼¶¦ÍÑ2³¬²ñµÄ¼¼ 270
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2009Ç¯4·î23Æü(ÌÚ) 13:30 - 15:00
Jong-Ghap Jhun (CCSR/Seoul National University; Professor)

¹Ö±éÂêÌÜ: Long-Term Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon
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The Asian-Pacific summer monsoon can be divided into three subsystems; that is, the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), the western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM), and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The recent characteristics of the EASM show significant differences from the climatological features that we had experienced before. In our study, we have investigated characteristics of long-term change in EASM and suggested new EASM index (EASMI). The summer climate of East Asia is influenced by the circulations in both the tropics and the midlatitudes. In order to separate tropics-related and extratropics-related precipitations from the total summer precipitation in the East Asian region, the EASMI and East Asian summer rainfall anomaly (EASRA) are used. The precipitation associated with the EASMI is considered as the tropics-related one, whereas the precipitation difference between EASRA and EASMI is considered as the extratropics-related one.
It has been recognized that the intensity of the EASM has a negative correlation with that of the WNPSM. This relationship is much stronger in the recent decade (1994-2004) than in the epoch before 1994 (1979-1993). The summer-mean tropospheric geopotential height fields regressed against the WNPSM index also indicate a marked change in the teleconnection pattern between two decades. There exist remarkable changes in mean circulations over the East Asian region around 1994 in the boreal summertime. After the mid-1990s, there has been a significant decrease in the strength of zonal wind speed at 200hPa near the subtropical jet area over the East Asia as well as a distinctive increase in precipitation over the southeastern part of China. This is suggested that the distinctive increase of the typhoon passing may be partly responsible for the increased precipitation over that area after the mid-1990s.
The EASM has large interdecadal and intraseasonal variabilities as well interannaul variability. The 227-yr daily precipitation record at Seoul, which represents one of the longest instrumental measurements, provides the climate singularity of extreme weather events and multidecadal-centennial variability of the rainy season structure. In addition, the change in intraseasonal structure of the EASM under the global warming scenario has been examined using a MIROC3.2(hires) climate model. The summer rainfall over the East Asian region under the global warming seems to increase greatly and the rainy period may be extended in the future.