気候システムセミナー

日時：金曜日 13:30-15:00
場所：東京大学柏キャンパス 総合研究棟270室
（＊変更の場合もありますので、詳細は下記の予定をご確認ください）

今後の予定

• Title: TBD
• Time: 13:30 - 15:00 on August 6, 2025.
• Place: General Research Bldg. 2F room 270
• Abstract: TBD

• Title: TBD
• Time: 10:00 - 11:30 on July 9, 2025.
• Place: General Research Bldg. 2F room 270 （＊気候コロキウムと合同開催）
• Abstract: TBD

• Title: Development of Energy Balance Climatology
• Time: 13:40 - 15:10 on June 24, 2025.
• Place: General Research Bldg. 3F room 320
• Abstract: 気候の成因を理解するに熱収支は最も端的な方法である。熱収支気候学の発展過程を概観しその成功と失敗を分析し、それが現在どこに位置し、将来の展開はどうであるかを考える。

• Title: Tropical to extratropical interactions using a hierarchy of model experiments
• Time: 13:30 - 15:00 on June 19, 2025.
• Place: General Research Bldg. 2F room 270
• Abstract: Tropical variability has long been identified as having an important influence on climate variability and change in the extratropical regions. Heating from tropical convection can generate stationary Rossby waves that propagate polewards and eastwards towards the poles, influencing temperature and rainfall patterns along the way. Recent studies have also highlighted the reverse - an influence of the polar regions on changes further north, for example, the stratospheric weakening of the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex that contributed to the prolonged drought and catastrophic fires in Australia in the spring and summer of 2019. In my talk, I will discuss some recent studies to understand these tropical to extratropical interactions using a hierarchy of global model experiments. I will also introduce the work we are undertaking towards developing kilometre scale global and regional versions of the ACCESS model in the ARC Centre of Excellence for 21^st Century Weather.

• Title: AMOC弱化に伴う北大西洋での塩分大変動
• Time: 15:30 - 17:00 on June 13, 2025.
• Place: General Research Bldg. 2F room 270
• Abstract: 北大西洋は高密度の水塊を形成することで大西洋深層循環（AMOC）を駆動する重要な海域である。様々な証拠から地球温暖化によりAMOCが弱化することで全球で急激な気候変化が引き起こされることが懸念されているものの、気候変動への影響に関する研究はいまだ少ない。本研究では気候モデルを用いて、北大西洋における海洋塩分の極端現象であるGreat Salinity Anomaly（GSA）がAMOC弱化時に急激に振幅が増加することを示す。塩分収支解析から海洋内部の力学によりGSAが伝播、強化されており、特にAMOC弱化による北大西洋海流の弱化と塩分の空間分布の変化で特徴づけられることが分かった。また一例として気候緩和シナリオにおける塩分変動の変化を示し、例え二酸化炭素濃度を緩和した場合でも振幅増加が共通してみられることを示す。さらにこの塩分変動に関連する海面高度変動の強化は北大西洋沿岸地域に対して高潮のリスクを高める可能性がある。

• Title: Perspectives on High-Temporal-Resolution Surface Solar Radiation Observations
• Time: 10:00 - 11:30 on June 11, 2025.
• Place: General Research Bldg. 2F room 270 （＊気候コロキウムと合同開催）
• Abstract: Surface observations remain the only direct measurements for understanding the surface energy budget. Coordinated surface solar radiation observations began during the International Geophysical Year (IGY) in the late 1950s, initiated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). These long-term observational records have provided valuable insights into the phenomena of global dimming and brightening, the radiative effects of clouds and aerosols, and the implications for solar energy and agricultural production. Since the 1990s, advancements in automated instrumentation have enabled measurements at hourly and sub-hourly intervals. These high-temporal-resolution observations make it possible to investigate the diurnal evolution of surface solar radiation and the associated environmental processes, to evaluate the performance of mainstream gridded datasets in estimating hourly surface solar radiation, and to contribute a more comprehensive understanding of key climatological parameters in the field of atmospheric radiation, which will be the central focus of this presentation.

• Title: Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Patterns and the El Nio Southern Oscillation under Climate Change
• Time: 10:30 - 12:00 on June 2, 2025.
• Place: General Research Bldg. 2F room 270
• Abstract: This lecture will discuss the impact of climate change in the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere system, and the wider global impacts of these changes. Topics covered will include the mean-state pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) change and the discrepancy between observations and models, physical processes responsible for uncertainties in future tropical Pacific SST patterns, and the impact of those mean-state SST pattern changes on rainfall in N. and S. America. The lecture will also discuss changes in the variability of the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) including the time of emergence of changes in the mean state and ENSO, the time of emergence of changes in the Walker Circulation, and changes in ENSO teleconnection patterns in North America and Europe.

• Title: The impact of climate change on the global economy
• Time: 15:00 - 16:30 on May 19, 2025.
• Place: General Research Bldg. 2F room 270
• Abstract: This seminar delves into the complex interplay between climate change and socioeconomic development, emphasizing the reciprocal effects of climate patterns on economic growth. Utilizing research from the Climate Impacts and Adaptation (CIA) group, we will analyze the application of Earth System Models and Integrated Assessment Models to evaluate climate impacts on global and regional economies. A key focus will be on internal climate variability, which complicates the attribution of economic damages to climate change due to its inherent uncertainties. The seminar will address the limitations of current climate models in capturing extreme weather events and discuss advancements in global kilometer-scale models that enhance the representation of climate variability. Additionally, we will explore the development of comprehensive Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that illustrate interactions between human and natural systems, advocating for a two-way coupling approach to better understand climate change impacts on human systems. This approach is vital for developing effective adaptation strategies and exploring potential climate futures. By integrating cutting-edge climate science with economic analysis, this seminar aims to provide critical insights for local climate change adaptation planning and inform global policy-making, adaptation, and mitigation strategies.

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