Publications

Refereed articles

””””Submitted ”Ć 2024 ”Ć 2023 ”Ć 2022 ”Ć 2021 ”Ć 2020 ”Ć 2019 ”Ć 2018 ”Ć 2017 ”Ć 2016 ”Ć 2015 ”Ć 2014 ”Ć 2013 ”Ć 2012 ”Ć 2011 ”Ć 2010 ”Ć 1996-2009

Invited talks

Refereed articles ([ ]: corresponding authored papers)

    Papers in preparation or submitted

  1. Shiogama, H., M. Watanabe, M. Yoshimori, A. Oka, Y. Kamae, T. Ogura, T. Yokohata, S. Emori, and M. Kimoto: Reconciling estimates of the Earth's climate sensitivity. Clim. Dyn., submitted.

  2. Jin, F.-F., M. Zhang, X.-F. Xu, and M. Watanabe: Simulations of the synoptic-eddy induced instability. Atmoss. Sci. Lett., submitted.

  3. Kang, S. M., M. Watanabe, and V. Gayler, 2024: Common and distinct drivers of convective mass flux and Walker circulation changes. Geophys. Res. Lett., accepted.

  4. Kim, H.-J., B. Wang, S. Watanabe, A. Noda, M. Watanabe, and M. Kawamiya: Robust signal of the simulated Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon variability during the recent warming period. Geophys. Res. Lett., submitted.

  5. Mochizuki, T., and M. Watanabe: Atlantic Impacts on Subdecadal Warming over the Tropical Pacific in the 2000s. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan., submitted.

  6. Mori, M., Y. Imada, H. Shiogama, Y. Kosaka, C. Takahashi, M. Arai, Y. Kamae, A. Hasegawa, and M. Watanabe: Arctic sea-ice loss contribution to the extremely strong Siberian High and East Asian cold winter in 2017/18. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., submitted.

    2024

  7. Cao, X., M. Watanabe, R. Wu, W. Chen, Y. Sun, and Q. Yan, 2024: The projected poleward shift of tropical cyclogenesis at a global scale under climate change in MRI-AGCM3.2H. Geophys. Res. Lett., 51, e2023GL107189.

  8. Hu, S., W. Zhang, M. Watanabe, F. Jiang, F.-F. Jin, H.-C. Chen, 2024: Equatorial western-central Pacific SST responsible for the North Pacific Oscillation-ENSO sequence. J. Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0434.1 Just published online

  9. Hu, S., M. Watanabe, W. Zhang, T. Iwakiri, and F. Jiang, 2024: Quantifying the amplifying effect of the winter North Pacific Oscillation on the subsequent ENSO. Geophys. Res. Lett., accepted.

  10. Onuma, Y., K. Yoshimura, T. Nitta, H. Tatebe, and M. Watanabe, 2024: Sensitivity of the Northern Hemisphere warming trend to snowpack variability. J. Climate, 37, 5751-5768, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0496.1. Just published online

  11. Takemura, K., et al., 2024: Preliminary diagnosis of primary factors for an unprecedented heatwave over Japan in 2023 summer. SOLA, accepted.

  12. Toda, M., Y. Kosaka, A. Miyamoto, and M. Watanabe, 2024: Walker circulation strengthening driven by sea surface temperature changes outside the tropics. Nature Geoscience, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01510-5. Just published online

  13. Watanabe, M., S. M. Kang, M. Collins, Y.-T. Hwang, S. McGregor, and M. F. Stuecker, 2024: Possible Shift in Controls of the Tropical Pacific Surface Warming Pattern. Nature, 630, 315 324, doi:10.1038/s41586-024-07452-7. Just published

    2023

  14. Iwakiri, T., Y. Imada, Y. Takaya, T. Kataoka, H. Tatebe, and M. Watanabe, 2023: Triple-dip La Ni«Ša in 2020-23: North Pacific atmosphere drives 2nd year La Ni«Ša. Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2023GL105763, doi:10.1029/2023GL105763.Just published online

  15. Shiogama, H., H. Tatebe, M. Hayashi, M. Abe, M. Arai, H. Koyama, Y. Imada, Y. Kosaka, T. Ogura, and M. Watanabe, 2023: MIROC6 Large Ensemble (MIROC6-LE): Experimental design and initial analyses. Earth Sys. Dyn., 14, 1107-1124, doi:10.5194/esd-14-1107-2023. Just published online

  16. Toda, M., M. Yoshimori, and M. Watanabe, 2023: New framework to understand mechanisms of land-ocean warming contrast induced by increasing greenhouse gases Part II: Transient climate state. J. Climate, 36, 4307-4326, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0483.1. Just published online

  17. Yamagami, Y., H. Tatebe, T. Kataoka, T. Suzuki, and M. Watanabe, 2023: Impacts of oceanic mesoscale structures on sea surface temperature in Arabian Sea and Indian summer monsoon revealed by climate model simulations. J. Climate, 36, 5477 5490. Just published

  18. [37] Watanabe, M., T. Iwakiri, Y. Dong, and S. M. Kang, 2023: Two completing drivers of the recent Walker circulation trend. Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2023GL105332, doi:10.1029/2023GL105332. Just published online

  19. Rugenstein, M., S. Dhame, D. Olonscheck, R. Wills, M. Watanabe, and R. Seager, 2023: Connecting the pattern problem and hot model problem. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2023GL105488.Just published online

    2022

  20. Iwakiri, T., and M. Watanabe, 2022: Multi-year ENSO dynamics as revealed in observations, climate model simulations, and the linear recharge oscillator. J. Climate, 35, 7625-7642. Just published online

  21. Konsta, D., J.-L. Dufresne, H. Chepfer, J. Vial, T. Koshiro, H. Kawai, A. Bodas-Salcedo, R. Roehring, M. Watanabe, and T. Ogura, 2022: Low-level marine tropical clouds in six CMIP6 models are too few, too bright but also too compact and too homogeneous. Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2021GL097593, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097593. Just published online

  22. Mogi, A., and M. Watanabe, 2022: Qualifying Contributions of Teleconnection Patterns to Extremely Hot Summers in Japan. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan., 100, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2022-025. Just published online

  23. Ono, J., M. Watanabe, Y. Komuro, H. Tatebe, and M. Abe, 2022: Enhanced Arctic warming amplification revealed in a low-emission scenario. Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-022-00354-4. Just published

  24. Shiogama, H., M. Watanabe, H. Kim, and N. Hirota, 2022: Emergent constraints on future precipitation changes. Nature, 602, 612-616, doi:10.1038/s41586-021-04310-8. Just published

  25. Takahashi, C., Y. Imada, and M. Watanabe, 2022: Influence of the MJO on Wintertime Extreme Snowfall and Precipitation in Japan. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 100, 257-283, doi:10.2151/jmsj.2022-014. Just published

  26. Yamagami, Y., M. Watanabe, M. Mori, and J. Ono, 2022: Barents-Kara sea-ice decline attributed to surface warming in the Gulf Stream. Nature Communications, 13, 3767, doi:10.1038/s41467-022-31117-6. Just published online

    2021

  27. Forster, P., T. Storelvmo, K. Armour, W. Collins, J.-L. Dufresne, D. Frame, D.J. Lunt, T. Mauritsen, M.D. Palmer, M. Watanabe, M. Wild, and H. Zhang, 2021: The Earth”Ēs Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 923 1054, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.009.

  28. Fukuda, Y., M. Watanabe, and F.-F. Jin, 2021: Mode of precipitation variability generated by coupling of ENSO with seasonal cycle in the tropical Pacific. Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL095204, doi:10.1029/2021GL095204.

  29. Hirota, N., T. Ogura, H. Shiogama, P. Caldwell, M. Watanabe, Y. Kamae, and K. Suzuki, 2021: Underestimated marine stratocumulus cloud feedback associated with overly active deep convection in models. Env. Res. Lett., 16, 074015, doi:10.1088/1748-9326.

  30. Iwakiri, T., and M. Watanabe, 2021: Mechanisms linking multi-year La Ni«Ša with preceding strong El Ni«Šo. Scientific Reports, doi:10.1038/s41598-021-96056-6.

  31. Iwakiri, T., and M. Watanabe, 2021: Contribution of Ekman transport to the ENSO periodicity estimated with an extended Wyrtki index. Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL095193, doi:10.1029/2021GL095193.

  32. Kohyama, T., Y. Yamagami, H. Miura, S. Kido, H. Tatebe, and M. Watanabe, 2021: The Gulf Stream and Kuroshio current are synchronized. Science, 374, 341-346, doi:10.1126/science.abh3295.

  33. Takaya, Y., Y. Kosaka, M. Watanabe, and S. Maeda, 2021: Skilful predictions of the Asian summer monsoon one year ahead. Nature Communications, doi:10.1186/s40645-020-00390-8.

  34. Toda, M., M. Yoshimori, and M. Watanabe, 2021: New framework to understand mechanisms of land-ocean warming contrast induced by increasing greenhouse gases Part I: Near-equilibrium state. J. Climate, 34, 9279-9292, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0302.

    2020

  35. Hasegawa A., Y. Imada, H. Shiogama, M. Mori, H. Tatebe, M. Watanabe, 2020: Impact of air-sea coupling on the probability of occurrence of heat waves in Japan. Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, 7, 78, doi:10.1186/s40645-020-00390-8.

  36. Imada, Y., H. Kawase, M. Watanabe, M. Arai, H. Shiogama, and I. Takayabu, 2020: Advanced risk-based event attribution for heavy regional rainfall events. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 3, 37, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-020-00141-y.

  37. Iwakiri, T., and M. Watanabe, 2020: Multiyear La Nina impact on summer temperature over Japan. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 98, 1245-1260, doi:10.2151/jmsj.2020-064.

  38. Kataoka, T., H. Tatebe, H. Koyama, T. Mochizuki, K. Ogochi, H. Naoe, Y. Imada, H. Shiogama, M. Kimoto, and M. Watanabe, 2020: Seasonal to decadal predictions with MIROC6: Description and basic evaluation. J. Adv. Modeling Earth Sys., 12, e2019MS002035, doi:10.1029/2019MS002035.

  39. Sherwood, S., M.J. Webb, J.D. Annan, K.C. Armour, P.M. Forster, J.C. Hargreaves, G. Hegerl, S. A. Klein, K.D. Marvel, E.J. Rohling, M. Watanabe, T. Andrews, P. Braconnot, C.S. Bretherton, G.L. Foster, Z. Hausfather, A.S. von der Heydt, R. Knutti, T. Mauritsen, J.R. Norris, C. Proistosescu, M. Rugenstein, G.A. Schmidt, K.B. Tokarska, and M.D. Zelinka, 2020: An assessment of Earth's climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence. Rev. Geophys., 58,e2019RG000678, doi:10.1029/2019RG000678.

  40. Shiogama, H., R. Hirata, T. Hasegawa, S. Fujimori, N. Ishizaki, S. Chatani, M. Watanabe, D. Mitchell, Y. T. E. Lo, 2020: Historical and future anthropogenic warming effects on droughts, fires and fire emissions of CO2 and PM2.5 in equatorial Asia. Earth System Dynamics, 11, 435-445.

  41. Toda, M., and M. Watanabe, 2020: Mechanisms of enhanced ocean surface warming in the Kuroshio region for 1951-2010. Clim. Dyn., 54, 4129-4145.

  42. Watanabe, M., H. Tatebe, H. Koyama, T. Hajima, M. Watanabe, and M. Kawamiya, 2020: Importance of El Nino reproducibility for reconstructing historical CO2 flux variations in the equatorial Pacific. Ocean Science, 16, 1431-1442, doi:10.5194/os-16-1431-2020.

  43. [36] Watanabe, M., J.-L. Dufresne, Y. Kosaka, T. Mauritsen, and H. Tatebe, 2020: Enhanced warming constrained by past trends in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature gradient. Nature Climate Change, 11, 33-37, doi:10.1038/s41558-020-00933-3.

    2019

  44. Imada, Y., M. Watanabe, H. Kawase, H. Shiogama, and M. Arai, 2019: July 2018 high temperature event in Japan could not have happened without human-induced global warming. SOLA, 15A, 8-12, doi:10.2151/sola.15A-002.

  45. Iwakiri, T., and M. Watanabe, 2019: Strengthening of the Indian Ocean dipole with increasing seasonal cycle in the mid-Holocene. Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083088.

  46. Iwakiri, T., and M. Watanabe, 2019: Mechanisms reducing ENSO amplitude and asymmetry via an enhanced seasonal cycle in the mid-Holocene. J. Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0110.1.

  47. Kang, S. M., M. Hawcroft, B. Xiang, Y.-T. Hwang, H. Kim, G. Cazes, F. Codron, T. Crueger, C. Deser, O. Hodnebrog, J. Kim, Y. Kosaka, T. Losada, C. R. Mechoso, G. Myhre, O. Seland, B. Stevens, M. Watanabe, and S. Yu, 2019: Extratropical-tropical interaction model intercomparison project (ETIN-MIP): Protocol and initial results. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 100, 2589-2605.

  48. Kataoka, T., M. Kimoto, M. Watanabe, and H. Tatebe, 2019: Wind-Mixed layer-SST feedbacks in a tropical air-sea coupled system: Application to the Atlantic. J. Climate, 32, 3865-3881.

  49. Mochizuki, T., and M. Watanabe, 2019: Observed and hindcasted subdecadal variability of the tropical Pacific climate. J. Marine Sci., 76, 1271-1279, doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsz026.

  50. Mori, M., Y. Kosaka, M. Watanabe, H. Nakamura, and M. Kimoto, 2019: A reconciled estimate of the influence of Arctic sea-ice loss on recent Eurasian cooling. Nature Climate Change, 9, 123-129, doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0379-3.

  51. Shimpo, A., et al., 2019: Primary Factors behind the Heavy Rain Event of July 2018 and the Subsequent Heat Wave in Japan. SOLA, in press. doi:https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.15A-003

  52. Shiogama, H., et al., 2019: Limiting global warming to 1.5 degC will lower increases in inequalities of four hazard indicators of climate change. Env. Res. Lett., accepted.

  53. Tatebe, H., et al., 2019: Description and basic evaluation of simulated mean state, internal variability, and climate sensitivity in MIROC6. Geo. Model Dev., 12, 2727-2765, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2727-2019.

  54. [35] Watanabe, M., and H. Tatebe, 2019: Reconciling roles of sulphate aerosol forcing and internal variability in Atlantic multidecadal climate changes. Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04811-3, in press.

    2018

  55. Ham, Y. G, J. S. Kug, F.-F. Jin, and M. Watanabe, 2018: Inverse relationship between present-day tropical precipitation and its sensitivity to greenhouse warming. Nature Climate Change, 8, 64-69, doi:10.1038/s41558-017-0033-5.

  56. Hirota, N., T. Ogura, H. Tatebe, H. Shiogama, M. Kimoto, and M. Watanabe, 2018: Roles of shallow convective moistening in the eastward propagation of the MJO. J. Climate, 31, 3033-3047, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0246.1.

  57. Imada, Y., H. Shiogama, C. Takahashi, M. Watanabe, M. Mori, Y. Kamae, and S. Maeda, 2018: Climate change increased the likelihood of the 2016 heat extremes in Asia. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 99, S97-S101.

  58. Toda, M., and M. Watanabe, 2018: Linear and nonlinear hydrological cycle responses to increasing sea surface temperature. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 1551-1558. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076745.

  59. [34] Watanabe, M., Y. Kamae, H. Shiogama, A. DeAngelis, and K. Suzuki, 2018: Low clouds link equilibrium climate sensitivity to hydrological sensitivity. Nature Climate Change, 8, 901-906, doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0272-0.

    2017

  60. Hayashi, M., and M. Watanabe, 2017: ENSO complexity induced by state dependence of westerly wind events. J. Climate, 30, 3401-3420.

  61. Hayashi, M., and M. Watanabe, 2017: Importance of background seasonality over the eastern equatorial Pacific in a coupled atmosphere-ocean response to westerly wind events. Clim. Dyn., in press.

  62. Hourdin, F., M. Thorsten, A. Getellman, J.-C. Golaz, V. Balaji, Q. Duan, D. Folini, D. Ji, D. Klocke, Y. Qian, F. Rauser, C. Rio, L. Tomassini, M. Watanabe, and D. Williamson, 2017: The art and science of climate model tuning. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, 589-602, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00135.1

  63. Imada, Y., S. Maeda, M. Watanabe, H. Shiogama, R. Mizuta, M. Ishii, and M. Kimoto, 2018: Recent enhanced seasonal temperature contrast in Japan from large ensemble high-resolution climate simulations. Atmosphere, 8, 57, doi:10.3390/atmos8030057.

  64. Kamae, Y., H. Shiogama, Y. Imada, M. Mori, O. Arakawa, R. Mizuta, K. Yoshida, C. Takahashi, M. Arai, M. Ishii, M. Watanabe, M. Kimoto, S.-P. Xie, and H. Ueda, 2017: Forced response and internal variability of summer climate over western North America. Clim. Dyn., 49, 403-417, doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3350-x.

  65. Mizuta, R., A. Murata, M. Ishii, H. Shiogama, K. Hibino, N. Mori, O. Arakawa, Y. Imada, K. Yoshida, T. Aoyagi, H. Kawase, M. Mori, Y. Okada, T. Shimura, T. Nagatomo, M. Ikeda, H. Endo, M. Nosaka, M. Arai, C. Takahashi, K. Tanaka, T. Takemi, Y. Tachikawa, K. Temur, Y. Kamae, M. Watanabe, H. Sasaki, A. Kitoh, I. Takayabu, E. Nakakita, and M. Kimoto, 2017: Over 5000 years of ensemble future climate simulations by 60 km global and 20 km regional atmospheric models. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, 1383-1398.

  66. Mochizuki, T., M. Kimoto, M. Watanabe, Y. Chikamoto, and M. Ishii, 2017: Inter-basin influence of the Indian Ocean on the Pacific decadal climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 7168-7175.

  67. Ogura, T., H. Shiogama, M. Watanabe, M. Yoshimori, T. Yokohata, J. Annan, J. Hargreaves, N. Ushigami, K. Hirota, and Y. Someya, 2018: Effectiveness and limitations of parameter tuning in reducing biases of top-of-atmosphere radiation and clouds in MIROC version 5. Geo. Model. Dev., 10, 4647-4664.

  68. Oka, A., and M. Watanabe, 2017: The post-2002 global warming hiatus caused by the subtropical Southern Ocean heating acceleration. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 3319-3327, doi:10.1002/2016GL072184.

  69. Shin, Y., S. Kang, and M. Watanabe, 2017: Dependence of climate response to Arctic warming on the latitudinal position of stationary waves. Clim. Dyn., 49, 3753-3763, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3543-y, in press.

  70. Takahashi, C., M. Mori, and M. Watanabe, 2017: Significant aerosol influence on the recent decadal decrease in tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 9496-9504, doi:10.1002/2017GL075369.

  71. Webb, M., T. Andrews, A. Bodas-Salcedo, S. Bony, C. Bretherton, R. Chadwick, H. Chepfer, H. Douville, P. Good, J. Kay, S. Klein, R. Marchand, B. Medeiros, P. Siebesma, C. Skinner, B. Stevens, G. Tselioudis, Y. Tsushima, and M. Watanabe, 2017: The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6. Geo. Model. Dev., 10, 359-384, doi:10.5194/gmd-10-359-2017.

    2016

  72. Chikamoto, Y., T. Mochizuki, A. Timmermann, M. Kimoto, and M. Watanabe, 2016: Potential tropical Atlantic impacts on Pacific decadal climate trends. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 7143-7151, doi:10.1002/2016GL069544.

  73. Hayashi, M., and M. Watanabe, 2016: Asymmetry of westerly and easterly wind events: Observational evidence. SOLA, 12, 42-45, doi:10.2151/sola.2016-009.

  74. Imada, Y., H. Tatebe, M. Watanabe, M. Ishii, and M. Kimoto, 2016: South Pacific influence on the termination of El Nino in 2014. Sci. Rep., 6, 30341, doi:10.1038/srep30341.

  75. Kamae, Y., T. Ogura, M. Watanabe, S.-P. Xie, and H. Ueda, 2016: Robust cloud feedback over tropical land in a warming climate. J. Geophys. Res., 121, 2593-2609, doi:10.1002/2015JD024525.

  76. Kamae, Y., T. Ogura, H. Shiogama, and M. Watanabe, 2016: Recent progress toward reducing the uncertainty in tropical low cloud feedback and climate sensitivity: A review. Geosci. Lett., 3, 17, doi:10.1186/s40562-016-0053-4.

  77. Kamae, Y., H. Shiogama, M. Watanabe, T. Ogura, T. Yokohata, and M. Kimoto, 2016: Lower tropospheric mixing as a constraint on cloud feedback in a multiparameter multiphysics ensemble. J. Climate, 29, 6259-6275, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0042.1.

  78. Shiogama, H., Y. Imada, M. Mori, R. Mizuta, D. Stone, K. Yoshida, O. Arakawa, M. Ikeda, C. Takahashi, M. rai, M. Ishii, M. Watanabe, and M. Kimoto, 2016: Attributing historical changes in probabilities of record-breaking daily temperature and precipitation extreme events. SOLA, 12, 225-231.

  79. [33] Takahashi, C., and M. Watanabe, 2016: Pacific trade winds accelerated by aerosol forcing over the past two decades. Nature Climate Change, 6, 768-772, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2996.

  80. Takahashi, C., M. Watanabe, H. Shiogama, Y. Imada, and M. Mori, 2016: A persistent Japanese heat wave in early August 2015: Roles of natural variability and human induced warming. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97, 107-112.

  81. Yoshimori, M., M. Watanabe, H. Shiogama, A. Oka, A. Abe-Ouchi, R. Ohgaito, and Y. Kamae, 2016: The transient response of global mean surface temperature to radiative perturbation: A review. Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, 3, doi:10.1186/s40645-016-0096-3.

    2015

  82. Ao, C.-O., J. Jiang, A. J. Mannucci, H. Su, O. Verkhoglyadova, C. Zhai, J. Cole, L. Donner, J.-L. Dufresne, T. Inversen, H. Kawai, T. Koshiro, C. Morcrette, L. Rotstayn, and M. Watanabe, 2015: Evaluation of CMIP5 upper troposphere and lower stratosphere geopotential height with GPS radio occultation observations. J. Geophys. Res., 120, 1678-1689, doi:10.1002/2014JD022239.

  83. Bony, S., B. Stevens, D. Frierson, C. Jakob, M. Kageyama, R. Pincus, T. Shepherd, S. Sherwood, P. Siebesma, A. Sobel, M. Watanabe, and M. Webb, 2015: Clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity. Nature Geoscience, 8, 261-268, doi:10.1038/NGEO2398.

  84. Cai, W., A. Santoso, G. Wang, S.-W. Yeh, S.-I. An, K. Cobb, M. Collins, E. Guilyardi, F.-F. Jin, J.-S. Kug, M. Lengaigne, M. J. McPhaden, K. Takahashi, A. Timmermann, G. Vecchi, M. Watanabe, and L. Wu, 2015: ENSO and greenhounse warming. Nature Climate Change, 5, 849-859, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2743.

  85. Chikamoto, Y., A. Timmermann, J.-J. Luo, T. Mochizuki, M. Kimoto, M. Watanabe, M. Ishii, S.-P. Xie, and F.-F. Jin, 2015: Skillful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability. Nature Communications, 6, doi: 10.1038/ncomms7869.

  86. Hirota, N., Y. N. Takayabu, M. Watanabe, M. Kimoto, and M. Chikira, 2015: Role of convective entrainment in spatial distributions of and temporal variations in precipitation over tropical oceans. J. Climate, 27, 8708-8723.

  87. Imada, Y., H. Tatebe, M. Ishii, Y. Chikamoto, M. Mori, M. Arai, M. Watanabe, and M. Kimoto, 2015: Predictability of two types of El Nino assessed using an extended seasonal prediction system by MIROC. Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, 4597-4617.

  88. Imada, Y., S. Kanae, M. Kimoto, M. Watanabe, and M. Ishii, 2015: Predictability of persistent Thailand rainfall during mature monsoon season in 2011 using statistical downscaling of CGCM seasonal prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, 1166-1178.

  89. Jiang, J. H., H. Su, C. Zhai, J. T. Shen, T. Wu, J. Zhang, J. Cole, L. Donner, C. Seman, A. DelGenio, L. S. Nazarenko, J.-L. Dufresne, M. Watanabe, C. Moncrette, H. Kawai, T. Koshiro, A. Gettelman, L. Millan, W. G. Read, and N. J. Livesey, 2015: Evaluating the diurnal cycle of upper tropospheric ice clouds in climate models using SMILES observations. J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 1022-1044.

  90. Kamae, Y., H. Shiogama, M. Watanabe, M. Ishii, H. Ueda, and M. Kimoto, 2015: Recent slowdown of tropical upper-tropospheric warming associated with Pacific climate variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 2995-3003, doi:10.1002/2015GL063608.

  91. Kamae, Y., M. Watanabe, T. Ogura, M. Yoshimori, and H. Shiogama, 2015: Rapid adjustments of cloud and hydrological cycle to increasing CO2: A review. Curr. Clim. Change Rep., doi:10.1007/s40641-015-0007-5.

  92. Tsushima, Y., M. A. Ringer, T. Koshiro, H. Kawai, R. Roehrig, J. Cole, M. Watanabe, T. Yokohata, A. Bodas-Salcedo, K. D. Williams, and M. J. Webb, 2015: Robustness, uncertainties, and emergent constraints in the radiative responses of stratocumulus cloud regimes to future warming. Clim. Dyn., 46, 3025-3039, doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2750-7.

  93. Webb, M.. J, A. P. Lock, C. S. Bretherton, S. Bony, J. Cole, S. Kang, T. Koshiro, H. Kawai, T. Ogura, R. Roehrig, Y. Shin, T. Mauritsen, S. S. Sherwood, J. Vial, M. Watanabe, M. D. Woelfle, and M. Zhao, 2015: The impact of parametrized convection on cloud feedback. Phil. Trans. B, doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0414.

  94. Xie, S.-P., C. Deser, G. Vecchi, M. Collins, T. L. Delworth, A. Hall, E. Hawkins, N. C. Johnson, C. Cassou, A. Giannini, and M. Watanabe, 2015: Toward predictive understanding of regional climate change. Nature Climate Change, 5, 921-930, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2689.

  95. Yamazaki, K., and M. Watanabe, 2014: Effects of extratropical warming on ENSO amplitudes in an ensemble of a coupled GCM. Clim. Dyn., 44, 679-693, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2145-1.

    2014

  96. Imada, Y., H. Shiogama, M. Watanabe, M. Mori, M. Ishii, and M. Kimoto, 2014: The contribution of anthropogenic forcing to the Japanese heat waves of 2013. In "Explaining extreme events of 2013 from a climate perspective", Eds. Herring, S. C., M. P. Hoerling, T. C. Peterson, and P. A. Stott, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, S52.

  97. Kamae, Y., M. Watanabe, H. Shiogama, and M. Kimoto, 2014: Summertime land-sea thermal contrast and atmospheric circulation over East Asia in a warming climate. Part I: Past changes and future projections. Clim. Dyn., 43, 2553-2568, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2073-0.

  98. Kamae, Y., M. Watanabe, H. Shiogama, and M. Kimoto, 2014: Summertime land-sea thermal contrast and atmospheric circulation over East Asia in a warming climate. Part II: Importance of CO2-induced continental warming. Clim. Dyn., 43, 2569-2583, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2146-0.

  99. Kamae, Y., H. Shiogama, M. Watanabe, and M. Kimoto, 2014: Attributing the increase in Northern Hemisphere hot summers since the late 20th century. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5192-5199, doi:10.1002/2014GL061062.Highlighted by Nature.

  100. Lestari, R. K., M. Watanabe, Y. Imada, H. Shiogama, R. D. Field, T. Takemura, and M. Kimoto, 2014: Increasing potential of biomass burning over Sumatra, Indonesia induced by anthropogenic tropical warming. Env. Res. Lett., 9, 104010, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104010.

  101. Ma, H.-Y., S. Xie, K. Williams, J. S. Boyle, S. Bony, H. Douville, S. Fermepin, S. A. Klein, B. Medeiros, M. Watanabe, and D. L. Williamson, 2014: On the correspondence between mean forecast errors and climate errors in CMIP5 models. J. Climate, 27, 1781-1798, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00474.1.

  102. Mochizuki, T., M. Kimoto, Y. Chikamoto, M. Mori, M. Watanabe, and M. Ishii, 2014: Error sensitivity to initial climate states in Pacific decadal hindcasts. SOLA, 10, 39-44, doi:10.2151/sola.2014-009.

  103. Mori, M., M. Watanabe, H. Shiogama, J. Inoue, and M. Kimoto, 2014: Robust Arctic sea-ice influence on the frequent Eurasian cold winters in past decades. Nature Geoscience, 7, 869-873, doi:10.1038/ngeo2277.

  104. Ogura, T., M. Webb, M. Watanabe,H. Lambert, Y. Tsushima, and M. Sekiguchi, 2014: Importance of instantaneous radiative forcing to tropospheric adjustment. Clim. Dyn., 43, 1409-1421, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1955-x.

  105. Sato, K., J. Inoue, and M. Watanabe, 2014: Influence of the Gulf Stream on the Barents sea ice retreat and Eurasian coldness during early winter. Env. Res. Lett., 9, 84009-84016, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/084009.

  106. Shiogama, H., M. Watanabe, Y. Imada, M. Mori, Y. Kamae, M. Ishii, and M. Kimoto, 2014: An attribution of the June-July 2013 heat wave in the southwestern United States of America. SOLA, 10, 122-126, doi:10.2151/sola.2014-025.

  107. [32] Watanabe, M., Y. Kamae, and M. Kimoto, 2014: Robust increase of the equatorial Pacific rainfall and its variability in a warmed climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 3227-3232, doi:10.1002/2014GL059692.

  108. [31] Watanabe, M., H. Shiogama, H. Tatebe, M. Hayashi, M. Ishii, and M. Kimoto, 2014: Contribution of natural decadal variability to global-warming acceleration and hiatus. Nature Climate Change, 4, 893-897, doi:10.1038/Nclimate2355.

  109. Yokohata, T., J. D. Annan, M. Collins, C. S. Jackson, H. Shiogama, M. Watanabe, S. Emori, M. Yoshimori, M. Abe, M. J. Webb, and J. C. Hargreaves, 2014: Reliability and importance of structural diversity of climate model ensembles. Clim. Dyn., 41, 2745-2763, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1733-9.

  110. Yoshimori, M., M. Watanabe, A. Abe-Ouchi, H. Shiogama, and T. Ogura, 2014: Relative contribution of feedback processes to Arctic amplification of temperature change in MIROC GCM. Clim. Dyn., 42, 1613-1630, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1875-9.

  111. Yoshimori, M., A. Abe-Ouchi, M. Watanabe, A. Oka, and T. Ogura, 2015: Robust seasonality of Arctic warming processes in two different versions of MIROC GCM. J. Climate, 27, 6358-6375.

    2013

  112. Blackburn, M., D. L. Williamson, K. Nakajima, W. Ohfuchi, Y. O. Takahashi, Y.-Y. Hayashi, H. Nakamura, M. Ishiwatari, J. McGregor, H. Borth, V. Wirth, H. Frank, P. Bechtold, N. P. Wedi, H. Tomita, M. Satoh, M. Zhao, I. M. Held, M. H. Suarez, M.-I. Lee, M. Watanabe, M. Kimoto, Y. Liu, Z. Wang, A. Molod, K. Rajendran, A. Kitoh, and R. Stratton, 2013: The Aqua Planet Experiment (APE): Control SST simulation. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 91, doi:10.2151/jmsj.2013-A01, 1-15.

  113. Chikamoto, T., M. Kimoto, M. Ishii, T. Mochizuki, T. T. Sakamoto, H. Tatebe, Y. Komuro, M. Watanabe, T. Nozawa, H. Shiogama, M. Mori, S. Yasunaka, Y. Imada, 2013: An overview of decadal climate Predictability in a multi-model ensemble by climate model MIROC. Clim. Dyn., 40, 1201-1222, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1351-y.

  114. Demoto, S., M. Watanabe, and Y. Kamae, 2013: Mechanism of tropical low-cloud response to surface warming using weather and climate simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 2427-2432, doi:10.1002/grl.50474.2013.

  115. Hayasaki, M., R. Kawamura, M. Mori, and M. Watanabe, 2013: Response of extratropical cyclone activity to the Kuroshio large meander in northern winter. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1-5, doi:10.1002/grl.50546.

  116. Imada, Y., M. Watanabe, M. Mori, M. Kimoto, H. Shiogama, and M. Ishii, 2013: Contribution of atmospheric circulation change to the 2012 heavy rainfall in southern Japan. In "Explaining extreme events of 2012 from a climate perspective", Eds. Peterson, T., M. Hoerling, P. Stott, and S. Herring, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, S52.

  117. Jang, Y.-S., D. Kim, Y.-H. Kim, M. Watanabe, and F.-F. Jin, and J.-S. Kug, 2013: Simulation of two types of El Nino from different convective parameters. Asia-Pacific J. Atmos. Sci., 49, 193-199.

  118. Kamae, Y., and M. Watanabe, 2013: Tropospheric adjustment to increasing CO2: its timescale and the role of land-sea contrast. Clim. Dyn., 41, 3007-3024, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1555-1.

  119. Kanno, H., M. Watanabe, and E. Kanda, 2013: MIROC5 predictions of Yamase. J. Agric. Meteorol., 69, 117-125.

  120. Mori, M., M. Watanabe, and M. Kimoto, 2013: Nonlinear Hadley circulation response to the zonally asymmetric sea surface temperature in an aqua-planet GCM. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 91A, 269-291.

  121. Mori, M., M. Kimoto, M. Ishii, S. Yokoi, T. Mochizuki, Y. Chikamoto, M. Watanabe, T. Nozawa, H. Tatebe, T. T. Sakamoto, Y. Komuro, Y. Imada, and H. Koyam, 2013: Hindcast prediction and near-future projection of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific using CMIP5 near-term experiments with MIROC. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 91, 431-452.

  122. Ohba, M., H. Shiogama, T. Yokohata, and M. Watanabe, 2013: Impact of strong tropical volcanic eruption on ENSO simulated in MIROC. J. Climate, 26, 5169-5182, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00471.1.

  123. Shiogama, H., M. Watanabe, T. Ogura, T. Yokohata, and M. Kimoto, 2013: Multi-parameter multi-physics ensemble (MPMPE): A new approach for exploring the uncertainty of climate sensitivity. Atmos. Sci. Lett., doi:10.1002/asl2.472.

  124. Shiogama, H., M. Watanabe, and Coauthors, 2013: Physics parameter uncertainty and observational constraints of climate feedback: An ensemble coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM without flux corrections. Clim. Dyn., 39, 3041-3056, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1441-x.

  125. Shiogama, H., M. Watanabe, Y. Imada, M. Mori, M. Ishii, and M. Kimoto, 2013: An event attribution of the 2010 drought in the South Amazon region using the MIROC5 model. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 14, 170-175, doi:10.1002/asl2.435.

  126. Su, H., J. H. Jiang, C. Zhai, V. S. Perun, J. T. Shen, A. DelGenio, L. S. Nazarenko, L. Donner, L. Horowitz, C. Seman, C. Moncrette, J. Petch, M. Ringer, J. Cole, A. Gettelman, M. Watanabe, J.-L. Dufresne, L. Rotstayn, S. Jeffrey, T. Wu, H. Kawai, T. Koshiro, E. M. Volodin, M. Mesquita, T. Iversen, T. L'Ecuyer, J. P. Teixeira, and G. L. Stephens, 2013: Diagnosis of CMIP5 cloud simulations in relation to large-scale parameters using NASA 'A-Train' satellite observations and other datasets. J. Geophys. Res., 118, 2762-2780.

  127. Tanaka, K., H.-J. Kim, K. Saito, H. G. Takahashi, M. Watanabe, T. Yokohata, M. Kimoto, K. Takata, and T. Yasunari, 2013: How have both cultivation and warming influenced annual global isoprene and monoterpene emissions since the preindustrial era? Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 9703-9718.

  128. [30] Watanabe, M., H. Shiogama, Y. Imada, M. Mori, M. Ishii, and M. Kimoto, 2013: Event attribution of the August 2010 Russian heat wave. SOLA, 9, 64-67, doi:10.2151/sola.2013-015

  129. [29] Watanabe, M., Y. Kamae, M. Yoshimori, A. Oka, M. Sato, M. Ishii, T. Mochizuki, and M. Kimoto, 2013: Strengthening of ocean heat uptake efficiency associated with the recent climate hiatus. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3175-3179, doi:10.1002/grl.50541.

  130. Williamson, D. L., M. Blackburn, K. Nakajima, W. Ohfuchi, Y. O. Takahashi, Y.-Y. Hayashi, H. Nakamura, M. Ishiwatari, J. McGregor, H. Borth, V. Wirth, H. Frank, P. Bechtold, N. P. Wedi, H. Tomita, M. Satoh, M. Zhao, I. M. Held, M. H. Suarez, M.-I. Lee, M. Watanabe, M. Kimoto, Y. Liu, Z. Wang, A. Molod, K. Rajendran, A. Kitoh, and R. Stratton, 2013: The Aqua Planet Experiment (APE): Response to changed meridional SST profile. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 91, doi:10.2151/jmsj.2013-A03, 16-56.

  131. Williams, K. D., A. Bodas-Salcedo, M. Deque, S. Fermepin, B. Medeiros, M. Watanabe, C. Jacob, S. A. Klein, C. A. Senior, and D. L. Williamson, 2013: The Transpose AMIP II experiment and its application to the understanding of Sourthern Ocean cloud biases in climate models. J. Climate, 26, 3258-3274.

    2012

  132. Chikamoto, T., M. Kimoto, M. Ishii, M. Watanabe, T. Nozawa, T. Mochizuki, H. Tatebe, T. T. Sakamoto, Y. Komuro, H. Shiogama, M. Mori, S. Yasunaka, Y. Imada, H. Koyama, M. Nozu, and F.-F. Jin, 2012: Predictability of a stepwise shift in Pacific climate during the late 1990s in hindcast experiments using MIROC. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 90A, 1-21.

  133. Chikamoto, T., M. Kimoto, M. Watanabe, M. Ishii, and T. Mochizuki, 2012: Relationship between the Pacific and Atlantic stepwise climate change during the 1990s. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, doi:10.1029/2012GL053225.

  134. Ha, K.-J, J.-E. Chu, J.-Y. Lee, B. Wang, N. H. Saji, and M. Watanabe, 2012: What causes cool summer over northern central and east Asia and central North America during 2009? Env. Res. Lett., 7, 044015, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044015.

  135. Jiang, J. H., H. Su, C. Zhai, V. S. Perun, A. Del Genio, L. S. Nazarenko, L. J. Donner, L. Horowitz, C. Seman, J. Cole, A. Gttelman, M. Ringer, L. Rotstayn, S. Jeffrey, T. Wu, F. Brient, J.-L. Dufresne, H. Kawai, T. Koshiro, M. Watanabe, T. Lecuyer, W. G. Read, J. W. Waters, B. Tian, J. P. Teixeira, and G. L. Stephens, 2012: Evaluation of cloud and water vapor simulations in IPCC AR5 climate models using NASA "A-Train" satellite observations. J. Geophys. Res., 117, doi:10.1029/2011JD017237.

  136. Kamae, Y., and M. Watanabe, 2012: On the robustness of tropospheric adjustment in CMIP5 models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L23808, doi:10.1029/2012GL054275.

  137. Komuro, Y., T. Suzuki, M. Ishii, M. Watanabe, T. Nozawa, T. T. Sakamoto, T. Yokohata, T. Nishimura, K. Ogochi, H. Hasumi, S. Emori, and M. Kimoto, 2012: Sea-ice in twentieth-century simulations by new MIROC coupled models: A comparison between models with high resolution and with ice thickness distribution. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 90A, 213-232.

  138. Mochizuki, T., Chikamoto, T., M. Kimoto, M. Ishii, H. Tatebe, Y. Komuro, T. Sakamoto, M. Watanabe, and M. Mori, 2012: Decadal prediction using a recent series of MIROC global climate models. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 90A, 373-383.

  139. Ohba, M., and M. Watanabe, 2012: Role of the Indo-Pacific interbasin coupling in predicting asymmetric ENSO transition and duration. J. Climate, 25, 3321-3335.

  140. Okazaki, A., P. J. F. Yeh, K. Yoshimura, M. Watanabe, M. Kimoto, and T. Oki, 2012: Estimatetion of flood risk change under global warming using MIROC5 simultations and discharge probability index. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 90, 509-524.

  141. Tatebe, H., M. Ishii, T. Mochizuki, Y. Chikamoto, T. T. Sakamoto, Y. Komuro, M. Mori, S. Yasunaka, M. Watanabe, K. Ogochi, T. Suzuki, T. Nishimura, and M. Kimoto, 2012: The initialization of the MIROC climate models with hydographic data assimilation for decadal prediction. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 90A, 275-294.

  142. [28] Watanabe, M., H. Shiogama, M. Yoshimori, T. Yokohata, T. Ogura, H. Okamoto, S. Emori, and M. Kimoto, 2012: Fast and slow timescales in the tropical low-cloud response to increasing CO2 in two climate models. Clim. Dyn., 39, 1627-1641, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1178-y. [pdf file]

  143. [27] Watanabe, M., H. Shiogama, and Coauthors, 2012: Using a multi-physics ensemble for exploring diversity in cloud shortwave feedback in GCMs. J. Climate, 25, 5416-5431. [pdf file]

  144. [26] Watanabe, M., and A. T. Wittenberg, 2012: A method for disentangling El Nino-mean state interaction. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, doi:10.1029/2012GL052013. [pdf file]

  145. [25] Watanabe, M., J.-S. Kug, F.-F. Jin, M. Collins, M. Ohba, and A. T. Wittenberg, 2012: Uncertainty in the ENSO amplitude change from the past to future. Geophts. Res. Lett., 39, doi:10.1029/2012GL053305.

    2011

  146. Hirota, N., Y. N. Takayabu, M. Watanabe, and M. Kimoto, 2011: Precipitation reproducibility over tropical oceans and its relationship to the double ITCZ problem in CMIP3 and MIROC5 climate models. J. Climate, 24, 4859-4873.

  147. Kim, D., Y.-S. Jang, D.-H. Kim, Y.-H. Kim, M. Watanabe, F.-F. Jin, and J.-S. Kug, 2011: El Nino-Southern Oscillation sensitivity to cumulus entrainment in a coupled general circulation model. J. Geophys. Res., 116, doi:10.1029/2011JD016526.

  148. Kim, H.-J, K. Takata, B. Wang, M. Watanabe, M. Kimoto, T. Yokohata, and T. Yasunari, 2011: Global monsoon, El Nino, and their interannual linkage simulated by MIROC5 and the CMIP3 CGCMs. J. Climate, 24, 5604-5618.

  149. Lee, Y.-Y., J.-S. Kug, G.-H. Lim, and M. Watanabe, 2011: Eastward shift of the Pacific/North American pattern on an interdecadal time scale and an associated synoptic eddy feedback. Int. J. Climatol., 32, 1128-1134, doi:10.1002/joc.2329.

  150. Lestari, R. K., M. Watanabe, and M. Kimoto, 2011: Role of air-sea coupling in the South China Sea summer monsoon. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 89A, 283-290.

  151. Toyoda, T., and Coauthors, 2011: Impact of the assimilation of sea ice concentration data on an atmosphere-ocean-sea ice coupled simulation of the Arctic Ocean climate. SOLA, 7, 37-40, doi:10.1021/sola.2011-010.

  152. [24] Watanabe, M., M. Chikira, Y. Imada, and M. Kimoto, 2011: Convective control of ENSO simulated in MIROC. J. Climate, 24, 543-562. [pdf file]

  153. [23] Watanabe, M., H. Shiogama, T. Yokohata, T. Ogura, M. Yoshimori, S. Emori, and M. Kimoto, 2011: Constraints to the tropical low-cloud trends in historical climate simulations by MIROC. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 12, 288-293, doi:10.1002/asl.337. [pdf file]

  154. Yokoi, S., Y. N. Takayabu, K. Nishii, H. Nakamura, H. Endo, H. Ichikawa, T. Inoue, M. Kimoto, Y. Kosaka, T. Miyasaka, K. Oshima, N. Sato, Y. Tsushima, and M. Watanabe, 2011: Application of cluster analysis to climate model performance metrics. J. Appl. Met. and Clim., 50, 1666-1675.

  155. Yun, K.-S., S.-Y. Kim, K.-J. Ha, and M. Watanabe, 2011: Effects of sub-seasonal basic state changes on Rossby wave propagation during northern summer. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D24102, doi:10.1029/2011JD016258.

    2010

  156. Kodama, C., Y. Mochizuki, S. Hasegawa, T. Iwasaki, and M. Watanabe, 2010: Negative correlation between the interannual variability of the stationary and transient wave energy in the Northern Hemisphere. SOLA, 6, 37-40. doi:10.2151/sola.2010-010

  157. Koseki, S., and M. Watanabe, 2010: Atmospheric boundary layer response to the meso-scale SST anomalies in the Kuroshio extension. J. Climate, 23, 2492-2507.

  158. Koyama, H., and M. Watanabe, 2010: Reducing forecast errors due to model imperfections using ensemble Kalman filtering. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 3316-3332.

  159. Mochizuki, T., M. Ishii, M. Kimoto, Y. Chikamoto, M. Watanabe, T. Nozawa, T. Sakamoto, H. Shiogama, T. Awaji, N. Sugiura, T. Toyoda, S. Yasunaka, H. Tatebe, and M. Mori, 2010: Pacific decadal oscillation hindcasts relevant to near-term climate prediction. PNAS, 107, 1833-1837. doi:10.1073/pnas.0906531107.

  160. [22] Watanabe, M., and Coauthors, 2010: Improved climate simulation by MIROC5: Mean states, variability, and climate sensitivity. J. Climate, 23, 6312-6335. [pdf file]

  161. [21] Yasui, S., and M. Watanabe, 2010: Forcing mechanisms of the summertime circumglobal teleconnection in a dry AGCM. J. Climate, 23, 2093-2114. [pdf file]

    2009

  162. Kosaka, Y., H. Nakamura, M. Watanabe, and M. Kimoto, 2009: Analysis on the dynamics of a wave-like teleconnection pattern along the summertime Asian jet based on a reanalysis dataset and climate model simulations. J.Meteor.Soc.Japan, 87, 561-580.

  163. [20] Watanabe, M., S. Emori, M. Satoh, and H. Miura, 2009: A PDF-based hybrid prognostic cloud scheme for general circulation models. Clim. Dyn., 33, 795-816, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0489-0. [pdf file]

  164. [19] Watanabe, M., 2009: Self-limiting feedback between baroclinic waves and a NAO-like sheared zonal flow. Geophys.Res.Lett., 36, doi:10.1029/2009GL037176. [pdf file]

    2008

  165. Koseki, S, M. Watanabe, and M. Kimoto, 2008: Role of the midlatitude air-sea interaction in orographically forced climate. J.Meteor.Soc.Japan, 86, 335-351.

  166. Mori, M, and M. Watanabe, 2008: The growth and triggering mechanisms of the PNA: A MJO-PNA coherence. J.Meteor.Soc.Japan, 86, 213-236.

  167. [18] Watanabe, M., 2008a: Two regimes of the equatorial warm pool. Part I: A simple tropical climate model. J.Climate, 21, 3533-3544. [pdf file]

  168. [17] Watanabe, M., 2008b: Two regimes of the equatorial warm pool. Part II: Hybrid coupled GCM experiments. J.Climate, 21, 3545-3560. [pdf file]

    2007

  169. Annamalai, H., H. Okajima, and M. Watanabe, 2007: Possible impact of the Indian Ocean SST on the Northern Hemisphere circulation during El Nino. J.Climate, 20, 3164-3189.

  170. [16] Watanabe, M., 2007: Reply to comments by B. A. Cash on "On the presence of annular variability in an aquaplanet model". Geophys.Res.Lett., 34, doi:10.1029/2006GL028669.

    2006

  171. Jin, F.-F., L.-L. Pan, and M. Watanabe, 2006a: Dynamics of synoptic eddy and low-frequency flow feedback. Part I: A linear closure. J.Atmos.Sci., 63, 1677-1694.

  172. Jin, F.-F., L.-L. Pan, and M. Watanabe, 2006b: Dynamics of synoptic eddy and low-frequency flow feedback. Part II: A theory for low-frequency modes. J.Atmos.Sci., 63, 1695-1708.

  173. Pan, L.-L., F.-F. Jin, and M. Watanabe, 2006: Dynamics of synoptic eddy and low-frequency flow feedback. Part III: Baroclinic model results. J.Atmos.Sci., 63, 1709-1725.

  174. [15] Watanabe, M., F.-F. Jin, and L.-L. Pan, 2006: Accelerated iterative method for solving steady problems of linearized atmospheric models. J.Atmos.Sci., 63, 3366-3382. [pdf file]

    2005

  175. Shiogama, H., M. Watanabe, M. Kimoto, and T. Nozawa, 2005: Anthropogenic and natural forcing impacts on the ENSO-like decadal variability during the second half of the 20th century. JGeophys.Res.Lett., 32, doi:10.1029/2005GL023871.

  176. [14] Watanabe, M., 2005: On the presence of annular variability in an aquaplanet model. Geophys.Res.Lett., 32, doi:10.1029/2004GL021869. [pdf file]

    2004

  177. [13] Watanabe, M., and F.-F. Jin, 2004: Dynamical prototype of the Arctic Oscillation as revealed by a neutral singular vector. J.Climate, 17, 2119-2138. [pdf file]

  178. [12] Watanabe, M., 2004: Asian jet waveguide and a downstream extension of the North Atlantic Oscillation. J.Climate, 17, 4674-4691. [pdf file]

    2003

  179. [11] Watanabe, M. and F.-F. Jin, 2003: A moist linear baroclinic model: Coupled dynamical-convective response to El Nino. J.Climate, 16, 1121-1139. [pdf file]

    2002

  180. [10] Watanabe, M., F.-F. Jin and M. Kimoto 2002: Tropical axisymmetric mode of variability in the atmospheric circulation: Dynamics as a neutral mode. J.Climate, 15, 1537-1554. [pdf file]

  181. [9] Watanabe, M. and F.-F. Jin, 2002: Role of Indian Ocean warming in the development of the Philippine Sea anticyclone during El Nino. Geophys.Res.Lett., 29, 10.1029/2001GL014318 (DOI). [pdf file]

    2001

  182. Kimoto. M., F.-F. Jin, M. Watanabe and N. Yasutomi, 2001: Zonal-eddy coupling and a neutral mode theory for the Arctic Oscillation. Geophys.Res.Lett., 28, 737-740.

    2000

  183. [8] Watanabe, M. and M. Kimoto, 2000a: Behavior of midlatitude decadal oscillations in a simple atmosphere-ocean system. J.Meteor.Soc.Japan, 78, 441-460.

  184. [7] Watanabe, M. and M. Kimoto, 2000b: On the persistence of decadal SST anomalies in the North Atlantic. J.Climate, 13, 3017-3028.

  185. [6] Watanabe, M. and M. Kimoto, 2000c: Atmosphere-ocean thermal coupling in the North Atlantic: A positive feedback. Quart.J.R.Met.Soc., 126, 3343-3369.

    1999

  186. [5] Watanabe, M. and T. Nitta, 1999: Decadal changes in the atmospheric circulation and associated surface climate variations in the Northern Hemisphere winter. J.Climate, 12, 494-510.

  187. [4] Watanabe, M., M. Kimoto, T. Nitta and M. Kachi, 1999: A comparison of decadal climate oscillations in the North Atlantic detected in observations and a coupled GCM. J.Climate, 12, 2920-2940.

  188. [3] Watanabe, M. and M. Kimoto, 1999: Tropical-extratropical connection in the Atlantic atmosphere-ocean variability. Geophys.Res.Lett., 26, 2247-2250.

    1998

  189. [2] Watanabe, M. and T. Nitta, 1998: Relative Impacts of snow and sea surface temperature anomalies on an extreme phase in the winter atmospheric circulation. J.Climate, 11, 2837-2857.

    1996

  190. [1] Watanabe, M. and M. Shinoda, 1996: Long-term variability of Asian summer monsoon rainfall during 1946-1988. J.Meteor.Soc.Japan, 74, 923-934.


Others

  1. Watanabe, M., 2000: Mechanisms of the decadal climate variability in the midlatitude atmosphere-ocean system. CCSR Report, No. 12, 158pp.

  2. Watanabe, M. and M. Kimoto, 1999: Tropical-extratropical connection in the Atlantic atmosphere-ocean variability. Proceedings of EU-Japan workshop on climate change '99, 71.

  3. Watanabe, M. and M. Kimoto, 1998: Behavior of midlatitude decadal oscillations in a simple atmosphere-ocean system. Proceedings of the International Symposium TRIANGLE '98, 327-335.

  4. Watanabe, M. and T. Nitta, 1997: Abrupt shifts in the atmospheric circulation and associated decadal climate variations in the Northern Hemisphere winter: A diagnistic study. CCSR Report, No. 6, 104pp.


Invited talks (English only)

  1. Watanabe, M., 2024: Tropical Pacific SST pattern problem. China-Japan-Korea Ocean and Earth System Science Symposium, Qingdao, China, 7-9 November, 2024.

  2. Watanabe, M., 2024: Tropical Pacific SST pattern problem. CLIVAR Workshop on Interaction among the tropical basins: Observations and simulations, Seoul, Korea, 22 June, 2024.

  3. Watanabe, M., 2024: Value of climate models in attributing and projecting large-scale climate changes. AOGS AS Lecture, PyeongChang, Korea, 25 June, 2024.

  4. Watanabe, M., 2024: Tropical Pacific SST pattern problem. MPI Special Seminar, Hamburg, Germany, 14 March, 2024.

  5. Watanabe, M., 2023: Attributing and projecting changes in extreme weather events over East Asia. KMS 60th Anniversary Symposium, Pusan, Korea, 19 April, 2023.

  6. Watanabe, M., T. Saga, et al., 2022: Importance of constraining the pattern effect during the historical period for future temperature projection. AGU Fall Meeting, Online, 17 December, 2022.

  7. Watanabe, M., Y. Imada, et al., 2021: Attributing extreme weather events over East Asia: Heatwave. Northeast Asian Symposium, Online, 4-5 November, 2021.

  8. Watanabe, M., 2019: Weather extremes in a warming climate. Sympojium on Heatwaves, Seoul, Korea, 23-24 July, 2019.

  9. Watanabe, M., 2019: Weather extremes in a warming climate. East Asian workshop on Climate Dynamics, Pusan, Korea, 22-24 May, 2019.

  10. Watanabe, M., 2019: Weather extremes in a warming climate. PyeongChang Forum, Pyeong Chang, Korea, 14-15 February, 2019.

  11. Watanabe, M., 2018: Weather and climate change attribution studies using GCMs. 2018 LASG Summer School on Climate System Model Development and Application, Beijing, 12-16 July, 2018.

  12. Watanabe, M., 2018: Low clouds linking equilibrium climate sensitivity to hydrological sensitivity. EGU2018, Vienna, 6-9 April, 2018.

  13. Watanabe, M., 2017: Attribution of recent intensification in the Pacific trade wind. Fourth Santa Fe Conference on Global and Regional Climate Change, 5-10 February, 2017.

  14. Watanabe, M., 2016: Recent intensification of the Pacific trade wind: A possible linkage to Atlantic multidecadal variability. ICTP workshop on teleconnection in the present and future climate, Trieste, 24-28 October, 2016.

  15. Watanabe, M., 2016: How can we explain possible human contribution to weather events? AOGS2016, Beijing, August 4, 2016.

  16. Watanabe, M., 2016: Attribution of the tropical Pacific climate change over the past two decades. 7th EU-Japan workshop on climate change research, Tokyo, 26-27 April, 2016.

  17. Watanabe, M., 2015: Significant sulphate aerosol impact on Atlantic multidecadal climate variability. AOGS2015, Singapore, August 5, 2015.

  18. Watanabe, M., 2015: Roles of internal and external processes in the Atantic multidecadal variability. IUGG2015, Prague, June 27, 2015.

  19. Watanabe, M., 2015: Model-based climate research on global change: Challenges for the future. JpGU Union Session "Geosicence Ahead", Tokyo, May 26, 2015.

  20. Watanabe, M., 2014: Global warming hiatus: Its mechanisms and role of internal decadal variability. Second East Asian winter seasonal outlook forum, Tokyo, November 29-31, 2014.

  21. Watanabe, M., 2014: Modeling group's perspective: MIROC and NICAM. WGCM 18th session, Grainau, Germany, October 9-10, 2014.

  22. Watanabe, M., 2014: Contribution of natural decadal variability to global warming acceleration and hiatus. Ocean heat uptake workshop, Southampton, UK, October 1-3, 2014.

  23. Watanabe, M., 2014: Climate sensitivity and feedback studies in the MIROC group. Norway-Japan Marine Seminar, Tokyo, June 4-5, 2014.

  24. Watanabe, M., 2014: How can we identify, attribute, and effectively use climate model biases? WCRP Grand Challenge wokshop on cloud, circulation and climate sensitivity, Schloss Rindberg, Germany, March 24-28, 2014.

  25. Watanabe, M., 2014: Toward reliable projection of the regional climate variability in a warming climate. Toward predictive dynamics of regional climate change, La Jolla, February 20-21, 2014.

  26. Watanabe, M., 2013: Decadal prediction and predictability: Lessons from CMIP5. RIMS International conference on theoretical aspects of variability and predictability in weather and climate systems, Kyoto, October 22-25, 2013.

  27. Watanabe, M., 2013: Review for CMIP5 high-resolution time slice experiments. Next generation climate change experiments needed to advance knowledge and for assessment of CMIP6, Aspen, August 4-9, 2013.

  28. Watanabe, M., 2013: Equatorial mean precipitation and ENSO in CMIP5 models: Its diversity and causes of errors. JpGU, Tokyo, May 24, 2013.

  29. Watanabe, M., and K. Yamazaki, 2013: Effects of extratropical warming on ENSO amplitudes in a GCM historical ensemble. Third CLIVAR WS "New Strategies for Evaluating ENSO Processes in Climate Models", Hobart, January 21-23, 2013.

  30. Watanabe, M., 2012: Processes controlling equilibrium climate sensitivity in model ensembles. AOGS-AGU (WPGM) joint assembly, Singapore, August 13-17, 2012.

  31. Watanabe, M., 2012: Changing ENSO amplitudes in the past and present. AOGS-AGU (WPGM) joint assembly, Singapore, August 13-17, 2012.

  32. Watanabe, M., 2012: Evaluating and understanding climate feedback and sensitivity in different types of model ensembles. 2012 LASG summer symposium, Xi'ning, July 3-5, 2012.

  33. Watanabe, M., 2012: Modeling activity of the MIROC group for climate feedback and sensitivity studies. The 14th international meeting on next generation models for climate change - climate 2012 -, Maui, March 12-15, 2012.

  34. Watanabe, M., J.-S. Kug, F.-F. Jin, M. Collins, M. Ohba, and A. T. Wittenberg, 2012: Attributing changing ENSO amplitudes in the past and present. WCRP workshop on coupled model intercomparison project phase5 (CMIP5) model analysis, Honolulu, March 5-9, 2012.

  35. Yokohata, T., M. Watanabe, et al. 2011: Understanding and validation of cloud response to CO2 increase using state-of-the-art climate model ensembles. AGU fall meeting, December 6, 2011.

  36. Watanabe, M., et al. 2011: Development, verification, and natural variability in MIROC5. EMC seminar at NCEP, Washington DC, November 16, 2011.

  37. Watanabe, M., et al. 2011: Development, verification, and natural variability in MIROC5. GMAO seminar at Goddard Space Flight Center, Washington DC, November 15, 2011.

  38. Watanabe, M., 2011: Circumglobal teleconnection pattern relevant to the seasonal predictability over East Asia. 12th joint meeting for the seasonal prediction of the East Asian winter monsoon, Tokyo, November 10-11, 2011.

  39. Watanabe, M., 2011: Comprehensive climate modeling linking structural and parametric uncertainties. Workshop on "Hierarchical modeling of climate", Trieste, July 18-22, 2011.

  40. Watanabe, M., 2011: Origin and dynamics of the circumglobal teleconnection pattern. IUGG2011, Melbourne, June 28-July 7, 2011.

  41. Watanabe, M., 2011: Constraints to the tropical low-cloud response to increasing CO2 in climate models. Joint Yonsei CTL-AORI-Hanyang-KORDI workshop on climate change and variability, Gangwondo, 20-22 February, 2011.

  42. Watanabe, M., 2010: ENSO simulation in MIROC: Perspectives toward CMIP5. Second CLIVAR WS "New Strategies for Evaluating ENSO Processes in Climate Models", Paris, 17-19 November, 2010.

  43. Watanabe, M., M. Chikira, Y. Imada, and M. Kimoto, 2010: Convective control of ENSO simulated by MIROC. Korea-Japan joint WS on climate system modeling, Ansan, 27-28 September, 2010.

  44. Koyama, H. and M. Watanabe, 2009: Reducing forecast errors due to model imperfectness using ensemble Kalman filtering. AOGS 2009, Singapole, August, 2009.

  45. Watanabe, M., 2009: Japanese climate modeling activity toward AR5. ICISTS-KAIST conference, Seoul, 20-23 August, 2009.

  46. Watanabe, M., 2009: Challenges in current climate modeling toward AR5. UAW 2009, Seoul, June, 2009.

  47. Watanabe, M., 2008: A possible modal view for understanding extratropical climate variability. UAW 2008, Chiba, July, 2008.

  48. Watanabe, M., 2006: Modeling clouds in GCMs: its difficulty and current approaches. Tohoku Univ. 21st Century COE Program WS "Climate Change: Past and Future", Sendai, 6-9 November 2006.

  49. Watanabe, M., 2006: Interbasin coupling and a birth of the equatorial warm pool. International ENSO workshop, Seoul, 12-13 September 2006.

  50. Watanabe, M., 2003: Possible processes affecting predictability of the East Asian winter climate. Joint Meeting for Seasonal Prediction of the East Asian Winter Monsoon, Tokyo, 11-13 November 2003.

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