出版物

査読付き論文

　　投稿中 ｜ 2024 ｜ 2023 ｜ 2022 ｜ 2021 ｜ 2020 ｜ 2019 ｜ 2018 ｜ 2017 ｜ 2016 ｜ 2015 ｜ 2014 ｜ 2013 ｜ 2012 ｜ 2011 ｜ 2010 ｜ 1996-2009

書籍・出版物

招待講演

プレスリリース


査読付き論文

    Papers in preparation or submitted

  1. Shiogama, H., M. Watanabe, M. Yoshimori, A. Oka, Y. Kamae, T. Ogura, T. Yokohata, S. Emori, and M. Kimoto: Reconciling estimates of the Earth's climate sensitivity. Clim. Dyn., submitted.

  2. Jin, F.-F., M. Zhang, X.-F. Xu, and M. Watanabe: Simulations of the synoptic-eddy induced instability. Atmoss. Sci. Lett., submitted.

  3. Kang, S. M., M. Watanabe, and V. Gayler, 2024: Common and distinct drivers of convective mass flux and Walker circulation changes. Geophys. Res. Lett., accepted.

  4. Kim, H.-J., B. Wang, S. Watanabe, A. Noda, M. Watanabe, and M. Kawamiya: Robust signal of the simulated Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon variability during the recent warming period. Geophys. Res. Lett., submitted.

  5. Mochizuki, T., and M. Watanabe: Atlantic Impacts on Subdecadal Warming over the Tropical Pacific in the 2000s. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan., submitted.

  6. Mori, M., Y. Imada, H. Shiogama, Y. Kosaka, C. Takahashi, M. Arai, Y. Kamae, A. Hasegawa, and M. Watanabe: Arctic sea-ice loss contribution to the extremely strong Siberian High and East Asian cold winter in 2017/18. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., submitted.

    2024

  7. Cao, X., M. Watanabe, R. Wu, W. Chen, Y. Sun, and Q. Yan, 2024: The projected poleward shift of tropical cyclogenesis at a global scale under climate change in MRI-AGCM3.2H. Geophys. Res. Lett., 51, e2023GL107189.

  8. Hu, S., W. Zhang, M. Watanabe, F. Jiang, F.-F. Jin, H.-C. Chen, 2024: Equatorial western-central Pacific SST responsible for the North Pacific Oscillation-ENSO sequence. J. Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0434.1 Just published online

  9. Hu, S., M. Watanabe, W. Zhang, T. Iwakiri, and F. Jiang, 2024: Quantifying the amplifying effect of the winter North Pacific Oscillation on the subsequent ENSO. Geophys. Res. Lett., accepted.

  10. Onuma, Y., K. Yoshimura, T. Nitta, H. Tatebe, and M. Watanabe, 2024: Sensitivity of the Northern Hemisphere warming trend to snowpack variability. J. Climate, 37, 5751-5768, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0496.1. Just published online

  11. Takemura, K., et al., 2024: Preliminary diagnosis of primary factors for an unprecedented heatwave over Japan in 2023 summer. SOLA, accepted.

  12. Toda, M., Y. Kosaka, A. Miyamoto, and M. Watanabe, 2024: Walker circulation strengthening driven by sea surface temperature changes outside the tropics. Nature Geoscience, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01510-5. Just published online

  13. Watanabe, M., S. M. Kang, M. Collins, Y.-T. Hwang, S. McGregor, and M. F. Stuecker, 2024: Possible Shift in Controls of the Tropical Pacific Surface Warming Pattern. Nature, 630, 315–324, doi:10.1038/s41586-024-07452-7. Just published

    2023

  14. Iwakiri, T., Y. Imada, Y. Takaya, T. Kataoka, H. Tatebe, and M. Watanabe, 2023: Triple-dip La Niña in 2020-23: North Pacific atmosphere drives 2nd year La Niña. Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2023GL105763, doi:10.1029/2023GL105763.Just published online

  15. Shiogama, H., H. Tatebe, M. Hayashi, M. Abe, M. Arai, H. Koyama, Y. Imada, Y. Kosaka, T. Ogura, and M. Watanabe, 2023: MIROC6 Large Ensemble (MIROC6-LE): Experimental design and initial analyses. Earth Sys. Dyn., 14, 1107-1124, doi:10.5194/esd-14-1107-2023. Just published online

  16. Toda, M., M. Yoshimori, and M. Watanabe, 2023: New framework to understand mechanisms of land-ocean warming contrast induced by increasing greenhouse gases Part II: Transient climate state. J. Climate, 36, 4307-4326, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0483.1. Just published online

  17. Yamagami, Y., H. Tatebe, T. Kataoka, T. Suzuki, and M. Watanabe, 2023: Impacts of oceanic mesoscale structures on sea surface temperature in Arabian Sea and Indian summer monsoon revealed by climate model simulations. J. Climate, 36, 5477–5490. Just published

  18. Watanabe, M., T. Iwakiri, Y. Dong, and S. M. Kang, 2023: Two completing drivers of the recent Walker circulation trend. Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2023GL105332, doi:10.1029/2023GL105332. Just published online

  19. Rugenstein, M., S. Dhame, D. Olonscheck, R. Wills, M. Watanabe, and R. Seager, 2023: Connecting the pattern problem and hot model problem. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2023GL105488.Just published online

    2022

  20. Iwakiri, T., and M. Watanabe, 2022: Multi-year ENSO dynamics as revealed in observations, climate model simulations, and the linear recharge oscillator. J. Climate, 35, 7625-7642. Just published online

  21. Konsta, D., J.-L. Dufresne, H. Chepfer, J. Vial, T. Koshiro, H. Kawai, A. Bodas-Salcedo, R. Roehring, M. Watanabe, and T. Ogura, 2022: Low-level marine tropical clouds in six CMIP6 models are too few, too bright but also too compact and too homogeneous. Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2021GL097593, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097593. Just published online

  22. Mogi, A., and M. Watanabe, 2022: Qualifying Contributions of Teleconnection Patterns to Extremely Hot Summers in Japan. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 100, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2022-025. Just published online

  23. Ono, J., M. Watanabe, Y. Komuro, H. Tatebe, and M. Abe, 2022: Enhanced Arctic warming amplification revealed in a low-emission scenario. Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-022-00354-4. Just published

  24. Shiogama, H., M. Watanabe, H. Kim, and N. Hirota, 2022: Emergent constraints on future precipitation changes. Nature, 602, 612-616, doi:10.1038/s41586-021-04310-8. Just published

  25. Takahashi, C., Y. Imada, and M. Watanabe, 2022: Influence of the MJO on Wintertime Extreme Snowfall and Precipitation in Japan. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 100, 257-283, doi:10.2151/jmsj.2022-014. Just published

  26. Yamagami, Y., M. Watanabe, M. Mori, and J. Ono, 2022: Barents-Kara sea-ice decline attributed to surface warming in the Gulf Stream. Nature Communications, 13, 3767, doi:10.1038/s41467-022-31117-6. Just published online

    2021

  27. Forster, P., T. Storelvmo, K. Armour, W. Collins, J.-L. Dufresne, D. Frame, D.J. Lunt, T. Mauritsen, M.D. Palmer, M. Watanabe, M. Wild, and H. Zhang, 2021: The Earth’s Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 923–1054, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.009.

  28. Fukuda, Y., M. Watanabe, and F.-F. Jin, 2021: Mode of precipitation variability generated by coupling of ENSO with seasonal cycle in the tropical Pacific. Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL095204, doi:10.1029/2021GL095204.

  29. Hirota, N., T. Ogura, H. Shiogama, P. Caldwell, M. Watanabe, Y. Kamae, and K. Suzuki, 2021: Underestimated marine stratocumulus cloud feedback associated with overly active deep convection in models. Env. Res. Lett., 16, 074015, doi:10.1088/1748-9326.

  30. Iwakiri, T., and M. Watanabe, 2021: Mechanisms linking multi-year La Niña with preceding strong El Niño. Scientific Reports, doi:10.1038/s41598-021-96056-6.

  31. Iwakiri, T., and M. Watanabe, 2021: Contribution of Ekman transport to the ENSO periodicity estimated with an extended Wyrtki index. Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL095193, doi:10.1029/2021GL095193.

  32. Kohyama, T., Y. Yamagami, H. Miura, S. Kido, H. Tatebe, and M. Watanabe, 2021: The Gulf Stream and Kuroshio current are synchronized. Science, 374, 341-346, doi:10.1126/science.abh3295.

  33. Takaya, Y., Y. Kosaka, M. Watanabe, and S. Maeda, 2021: Skilful predictions of the Asian summer monsoon one year ahead. Nature Communications, doi:10.1186/s40645-020-00390-8.

  34. Toda, M., M. Yoshimori, and M. Watanabe, 2021: New framework to understand mechanisms of land-ocean warming contrast induced by increasing greenhouse gases Part I: Near-equilibrium state. J. Climate, 34, 9279-9292, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0302.

    2020

  35. Hasegawa A., Y. Imada, H. Shiogama, M. Mori, H. Tatebe, M. Watanabe, 2020: Impact of air-sea coupling on the probability of occurrence of heat waves in Japan. Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, 7, 78, doi:10.1186/s40645-020-00390-8.

  36. Imada, Y., H. Kawase, M. Watanabe, M. Arai, H. Shiogama, and I. Takayabu, 2020: Advanced risk-based event attribution for heavy regional rainfall events. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 3, 37, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-020-00141-y.

  37. Iwakiri, T., and M. Watanabe, 2020: Multiyear La Nina impact on summer temperature over Japan. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 98, 1245-1260, doi:10.2151/jmsj.2020-064.

  38. Kataoka, T., H. Tatebe, H. Koyama, T. Mochizuki, K. Ogochi, H. Naoe, Y. Imada, H. Shiogama, M. Kimoto, and M. Watanabe, 2020: Seasonal to decadal predictions with MIROC6: Description and basic evaluation. J. Adv. Modeling Earth Sys., 12, e2019MS002035, doi:10.1029/2019MS002035.

  39. Sherwood, S., M.J. Webb, J.D. Annan, K.C. Armour, P.M. Forster, J.C. Hargreaves, G. Hegerl, S. A. Klein, K.D. Marvel, E.J. Rohling, M. Watanabe, T. Andrews, P. Braconnot, C.S. Bretherton, G.L. Foster, Z. Hausfather, A.S. von der Heydt, R. Knutti, T. Mauritsen, J.R. Norris, C. Proistosescu, M. Rugenstein, G.A. Schmidt, K.B. Tokarska, and M.D. Zelinka, 2020: An assessment of Earth’s climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence. Rev. Geophys., 58,e2019RG000678, doi:10.1029/2019RG000678.

  40. Shiogama, H., R. Hirata, T. Hasegawa, S. Fujimori, N. Ishizaki, S. Chatani, M. Watanabe, D. Mitchell, Y. T. E. Lo, 2020: Historical and future anthropogenic warming effects on droughts, fires and fire emissions of CO2 and PM2.5 in equatorial Asia. Earth System Dynamics, 11, 435-445.

  41. Toda, M., and M. Watanabe, 2020: Mechanisms of enhanced ocean surface warming in the Kuroshio region for 1951-2010. Clim. Dyn., 54, 4129-4145.

  42. Watanabe, M., H. Tatebe, H. Koyama, T. Hajima, M. Watanabe, and M. Kawamiya, 2020: Importance of El Nino reproducibility for reconstructing historical CO2 flux variations in the equatorial Pacific. Ocean Science, 16, 1431-1442, doi:10.5194/os-16-1431-2020.

  43. Watanabe, M., J.-L. Dufresne, Y. Kosaka, T. Mauritsen, and H. Tatebe, 2020: Enhanced warming constrained by past trends in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature gradient. Nature Climate Change, 11, 33-37, doi:10.1038/s41558-020-00933-3.

    2019

  44. Imada, Y., M. Watanabe, H. Kawase, H. Shiogama, and M. Arai, 2019: July 2018 high temperature event in Japan could not have happened without human-induced global warming. SOLA, 15A, 8-12, doi:10.2151/sola.15A-002.

  45. Iwakiri, T., and M. Watanabe, 2019: Strengthening of the Indian Ocean dipole with increasing seasonal cycle in the mid-Holocene. Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083088.

  46. Iwakiri, T., and M. Watanabe, 2019: Mechanisms reducing ENSO amplitude and asymmetry via an enhanced seasonal cycle in the mid-Holocene. J. Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0110.1.

  47. Kang, S. M., M. Hawcroft, B. Xiang, Y.-T. Hwang, H. Kim, G. Cazes, F. Codron, T. Crueger, C. Deser, O. Hodnebrog, J. Kim, Y. Kosaka, T. Losada, C. R. Mechoso, G. Myhre, O. Seland, B. Stevens, M. Watanabe, and S. Yu, 2019: Extratropical-tropical interaction model intercomparison project (ETIN-MIP): Protocol and initial results. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 100, 2589-2605.

  48. Kataoka, T., M. Kimoto, M. Watanabe, and H. Tatebe, 2019: Wind-Mixed layer-SST feedbacks in a tropical air-sea coupled system: Application to the Atlantic. J. Climate, 32, 3865-3881.

  49. Mochizuki, T., and M. Watanabe, 2019: Observed and hindcasted subdecadal variability of the tropical Pacific climate. J. Marine Sci., 76, 1271-1279, doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsz026.

  50. Mori, M., Y. Kosaka, M. Watanabe, H. Nakamura, and M. Kimoto, 2019: A reconciled estimate of the influence of Arctic sea-ice loss on recent Eurasian cooling. Nature Climate Change, 9, 123-129, doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0379-3.

  51. Shimpo, A., et al., 2019: Primary Factors behind the Heavy Rain Event of July 2018 and the Subsequent Heat Wave in Japan. SOLA, in press. doi:https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.15A-003

  52. Shiogama, H., et al., 2019: Limiting global warming to 1.5 degC will lower increases in inequalities of four hazard indicators of climate change. Env. Res. Lett., accepted.

  53. Tatebe, H., et al., 2019: Description and basic evaluation of simulated mean state, internal variability, and climate sensitivity in MIROC6. Geo. Model Dev., 12, 2727-2765, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2727-2019.

  54. Watanabe, M., and H. Tatebe, 2019: Reconciling roles of sulphate aerosol forcing and internal variability in Atlantic multidecadal climate changes. Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04811-3, in press.

    2018

  55. Ham, Y. G, J. S. Kug, F.-F. Jin, and M. Watanabe, 2018: Inverse relationship between present-day tropical precipitation and its sensitivity to greenhouse warming. Nature Climate Change, 8, 64-69, doi:10.1038/s41558-017-0033-5.

  56. Hirota, N., T. Ogura, H. Tatebe, H. Shiogama, M. Kimoto, and M. Watanabe, 2018: Roles of shallow convective moistening in the eastward propagation of the MJO. J. Climate, 31, 3033–3047, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0246.1.

  57. Imada, Y., H. Shiogama, C. Takahashi, M. Watanabe, M. Mori, Y. Kamae, and S. Maeda, 2018: Climate change increased the likelihood of the 2016 heat extremes in Asia. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 99, S97-S101.

  58. Toda, M., and M. Watanabe, 2018: Linear and nonlinear hydrological cycle responses to increasing sea surface temperature. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 1551-1558. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076745.

  59. Watanabe, M., Y. Kamae, H. Shiogama, A. DeAngelis, and K. Suzuki, 2018: Low clouds link equilibrium climate sensitivity to hydrological sensitivity. Nature Climate Change, 8, 901-906, doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0272-0.

    2017

  60. Hayashi, M., and M. Watanabe, 2017: ENSO complexity induced by state dependence of westerly wind events. J. Climate, 30, 3401-3420.

  61. Hayashi, M., and M. Watanabe, 2017: Importance of background seasonality over the eastern equatorial Pacific in a coupled atmosphere-ocean response to westerly wind events. Clim. Dyn., in press.

  62. Hourdin, F., M. Thorsten, A. Getellman, J.-C. Golaz, V. Balaji, Q. Duan, D. Folini, D. Ji, D. Klocke, Y. Qian, F. Rauser, C. Rio, L. Tomassini, M. Watanabe, and D. Williamson, 2017: The art and science of climate model tuning. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, 589-602, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00135.1

  63. Imada, Y., S. Maeda, M. Watanabe, H. Shiogama, R. Mizuta, M. Ishii, and M. Kimoto, 2018: Recent enhanced seasonal temperature contrast in Japan from large ensemble high-resolution climate simulations. Atmosphere, 8, 57, doi:10.3390/atmos8030057.

  64. Kamae, Y., H. Shiogama, Y. Imada, M. Mori, O. Arakawa, R. Mizuta, K. Yoshida, C. Takahashi, M. Arai, M. Ishii, M. Watanabe, M. Kimoto, S.-P. Xie, and H. Ueda, 2017: Forced response and internal variability of summer climate over western North America. Clim. Dyn., 49, 403-417, doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3350-x.

  65. Mizuta, R., A. Murata, M. Ishii, H. Shiogama, K. Hibino, N. Mori, O. Arakawa, Y. Imada, K. Yoshida, T. Aoyagi, H. Kawase, M. Mori, Y. Okada, T. Shimura, T. Nagatomo, M. Ikeda, H. Endo, M. Nosaka, M. Arai, C. Takahashi, K. Tanaka, T. Takemi, Y. Tachikawa, K. Temur, Y. Kamae, M. Watanabe, H. Sasaki, A. Kitoh, I. Takayabu, E. Nakakita, and M. Kimoto, 2017: Over 5000 years of ensemble future climate simulations by 60 km global and 20 km regional atmospheric models. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, 1383-1398.

  66. Mochizuki, T., M. Kimoto, M. Watanabe, Y. Chikamoto, and M. Ishii, 2017: Inter-basin influence of the Indian Ocean on the Pacific decadal climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 7168-7175.

  67. Ogura, T., H. Shiogama, M. Watanabe, M. Yoshimori, T. Yokohata, J. Annan, J. Hargreaves, N. Ushigami, K. Hirota, and Y. Someya, 2018: Effectiveness and limitations of parameter tuning in reducing biases of top-of-atmosphere radiation and clouds in MIROC version 5. Geo. Model. Dev., 10, 4647-4664.

  68. Oka, A., and M. Watanabe, 2017: The post-2002 global warming hiatus caused by the subtropical Southern Ocean heating acceleration. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 3319-3327, doi:10.1002/2016GL072184.

  69. Shin, Y., S. Kang, and M. Watanabe, 2017: Dependence of climate response to Arctic warming on the latitudinal position of stationary waves. Clim. Dyn., 49, 3753-3763, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3543-y, in press.

  70. Takahashi, C., M. Mori, and M. Watanabe, 2017: Significant aerosol influence on the recent decadal decrease in tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 9496-9504, doi:10.1002/2017GL075369.

  71. Webb, M., T. Andrews, A. Bodas-Salcedo, S. Bony, C. Bretherton, R. Chadwick, H. Chepfer, H. Douville, P. Good, J. Kay, S. Klein, R. Marchand, B. Medeiros, P. Siebesma, C. Skinner, B. Stevens, G. Tselioudis, Y. Tsushima, and M. Watanabe, 2017: The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6. Geo. Model. Dev., 10, 359-384, doi:10.5194/gmd-10-359-2017.

    2016

  72. Chikamoto, Y., T. Mochizuki, A. Timmermann, M. Kimoto, and M. Watanabe, 2016: Potential tropical Atlantic impacts on Pacific decadal climate trends. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 7143-7151, doi:10.1002/2016GL069544.

  73. Hayashi, M., and M. Watanabe, 2016: Asymmetry of westerly and easterly wind events: Observational evidence. SOLA, 12, 42-45, doi:10.2151/sola.2016-009.

  74. Imada, Y., H. Tatebe, M. Watanabe, M. Ishii, and M. Kimoto, 2016: South Pacific influence on the termination of El Nino in 2014. Sci. Rep., 6, 30341, doi:10.1038/srep30341.

  75. Kamae, Y., T. Ogura, M. Watanabe, S.-P. Xie, and H. Ueda, 2016: Robust cloud feedback over tropical land in a warming climate. J. Geophys. Res., 121, 2593-2609, doi:10.1002/2015JD024525.

  76. Kamae, Y., T. Ogura, H. Shiogama, and M. Watanabe, 2016: Recent progress toward reducing the uncertainty in tropical low cloud feedback and climate sensitivity: A review. Geosci. Lett., 3, 17, doi:10.1186/s40562-016-0053-4.

  77. Kamae, Y., H. Shiogama, M. Watanabe, T. Ogura, T. Yokohata, and M. Kimoto, 2016: Lower tropospheric mixing as a constraint on cloud feedback in a multiparameter multiphysics ensemble. J. Climate, 29, 6259-6275, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0042.1.

  78. Shiogama, H., Y. Imada, M. Mori, R. Mizuta, D. Stone, K. Yoshida, O. Arakawa, M. Ikeda, C. Takahashi, M. rai, M. Ishii, M. Watanabe, and M. Kimoto, 2016: Attributing historical changes in probabilities of record-breaking daily temperature and precipitation extreme events. SOLA, 12, 225-231.

  79. Takahashi, C., and M. Watanabe, 2016: Pacific trade winds accelerated by aerosol forcing over the past two decades. Nature Climate Change, 6, 768-772, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2996.

  80. Takahashi, C., M. Watanabe, H. Shiogama, Y. Imada, and M. Mori, 2016: A persistent Japanese heat wave in early August 2015: Roles of natural variability and human induced warming. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97, 107-112.

  81. Yoshimori, M., M. Watanabe, H. Shiogama, A. Oka, A. Abe-Ouchi, R. Ohgaito, and Y. Kamae, 2016: The transient response of global mean surface temperature to radiative perturbation: A review. Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, 3, doi:10.1186/s40645-016-0096-3.

    2015

  82. Ao, C.-O., J. Jiang, A. J. Mannucci, H. Su, O. Verkhoglyadova, C. Zhai, J. Cole, L. Donner, J.-L. Dufresne, T. Inversen, H. Kawai, T. Koshiro, C. Morcrette, L. Rotstayn, and M. Watanabe, 2015: Evaluation of CMIP5 upper troposphere and lower stratosphere geopotential height with GPS radio occultation observations. J. Geophys. Res., 120, 1678-1689, doi:10.1002/2014JD022239.

  83. Bony, S., B. Stevens, D. Frierson, C. Jakob, M. Kageyama, R. Pincus, T. Shepherd, S. Sherwood, P. Siebesma, A. Sobel, M. Watanabe, and M. Webb, 2015: Clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity. Nature Geoscience, 8, 261-268, doi:10.1038/NGEO2398.

  84. Cai, W., A. Santoso, G. Wang, S.-W. Yeh, S.-I. An, K. Cobb, M. Collins, E. Guilyardi, F.-F. Jin, J.-S. Kug, M. Lengaigne, M. J. McPhaden, K. Takahashi, A. Timmermann, G. Vecchi, M. Watanabe, and L. Wu, 2015: ENSO and greenhounse warming. Nature Climate Change, 5, 849-859, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2743.

  85. Chikamoto, Y., A. Timmermann, J.-J. Luo, T. Mochizuki, M. Kimoto, M. Watanabe, M. Ishii, S.-P. Xie, and F.-F. Jin, 2015: Skillful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability. Nature Communications, 6, doi: 10.1038/ncomms7869.

  86. Hirota, N., Y. N. Takayabu, M. Watanabe, M. Kimoto, and M. Chikira, 2015: Role of convective entrainment in spatial distributions of and temporal variations in precipitation over tropical oceans. J. Climate, 27, 8708-8723.

  87. Imada, Y., H. Tatebe, M. Ishii, Y. Chikamoto, M. Mori, M. Arai, M. Watanabe, and M. Kimoto, 2015: Predictability of two types of El Nino assessed using an extended seasonal prediction system by MIROC. Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, 4597-4617.

  88. Imada, Y., S. Kanae, M. Kimoto, M. Watanabe, and M. Ishii, 2015: Predictability of persistent Thailand rainfall during mature monsoon season in 2011 using statistical downscaling of CGCM seasonal prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, 1166-1178.

  89. Jiang, J. H., H. Su, C. Zhai, J. T. Shen, T. Wu, J. Zhang, J. Cole, L. Donner, C. Seman, A. DelGenio, L. S. Nazarenko, J.-L. Dufresne, M. Watanabe, C. Moncrette, H. Kawai, T. Koshiro, A. Gettelman, L. Millan, W. G. Read, and N. J. Livesey, 2015: Evaluating the diurnal cycle of upper tropospheric ice clouds in climate models using SMILES observations. J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 1022-1044.

  90. Kamae, Y., H. Shiogama, M. Watanabe, M. Ishii, H. Ueda, and M. Kimoto, 2015: Recent slowdown of tropical upper-tropospheric warming associated with Pacific climate variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 2995-3003, doi:10.1002/2015GL063608.

  91. Kamae, Y., M. Watanabe, T. Ogura, M. Yoshimori, and H. Shiogama, 2015: Rapid adjustments of cloud and hydrological cycle to increasing CO2: A review. Curr. Clim. Change Rep., doi:10.1007/s40641-015-0007-5.

  92. Tsushima, Y., M. A. Ringer, T. Koshiro, H. Kawai, R. Roehrig, J. Cole, M. Watanabe, T. Yokohata, A. Bodas-Salcedo, K. D. Williams, and M. J. Webb, 2015: Robustness, uncertainties, and emergent constraints in the radiative responses of stratocumulus cloud regimes to future warming. Clim. Dyn., 46, 3025-3039, doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2750-7.

  93. Webb, M.. J, A. P. Lock, C. S. Bretherton, S. Bony, J. Cole, S. Kang, T. Koshiro, H. Kawai, T. Ogura, R. Roehrig, Y. Shin, T. Mauritsen, S. S. Sherwood, J. Vial, M. Watanabe, M. D. Woelfle, and M. Zhao, 2015: The impact of parametrized convection on cloud feedback. Phil. Trans. B, doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0414.

  94. Xie, S.-P., C. Deser, G. Vecchi, M. Collins, T. L. Delworth, A. Hall, E. Hawkins, N. C. Johnson, C. Cassou, A. Giannini, and M. Watanabe, 2015: Toward predictive understanding of regional climate change. Nature Climate Change, 5, 921-930, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2689.

  95. Yamazaki, K., and M. Watanabe, 2014: Effects of extratropical warming on ENSO amplitudes in an ensemble of a coupled GCM. Clim. Dyn., 44, 679-693, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2145-1.

    2014

  96. Imada, Y., H. Shiogama, M. Watanabe, M. Mori, M. Ishii, and M. Kimoto, 2014: The contribution of anthropogenic forcing to the Japanese heat waves of 2013. In "Explaining extreme events of 2013 from a climate perspective", Eds. Herring, S. C., M. P. Hoerling, T. C. Peterson, and P. A. Stott, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, S52.

  97. Kamae, Y., M. Watanabe, H. Shiogama, and M. Kimoto, 2014: Summertime land-sea thermal contrast and atmospheric circulation over East Asia in a warming climate. Part I: Past changes and future projections. Clim. Dyn., 43, 2553-2568, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2073-0.

  98. Kamae, Y., M. Watanabe, H. Shiogama, and M. Kimoto, 2014: Summertime land-sea thermal contrast and atmospheric circulation over East Asia in a warming climate. Part II: Importance of CO2-induced continental warming. Clim. Dyn., 43, 2569-2583, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2146-0.

  99. Kamae, Y., H. Shiogama, M. Watanabe, and M. Kimoto, 2014: Attributing the increase in Northern Hemisphere hot summers since the late 20th century. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5192-5199, doi:10.1002/2014GL061062.Highlighted by Nature.

  100. Lestari, R. K., M. Watanabe, Y. Imada, H. Shiogama, R. D. Field, T. Takemura, and M. Kimoto, 2014: Increasing potential of biomass burning over Sumatra, Indonesia induced by anthropogenic tropical warming. Env. Res. Lett., 9, 104010, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104010.

  101. Ma, H.-Y., S. Xie, K. Williams, J. S. Boyle, S. Bony, H. Douville, S. Fermepin, S. A. Klein, B. Medeiros, M. Watanabe, and D. L. Williamson, 2014: On the correspondence between mean forecast errors and climate errors in CMIP5 models. J. Climate, 27, 1781-1798, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00474.1.

  102. Mochizuki, T., M. Kimoto, Y. Chikamoto, M. Mori, M. Watanabe, and M. Ishii, 2014: Error sensitivity to initial climate states in Pacific decadal hindcasts. SOLA, 10, 39-44, doi:10.2151/sola.2014-009.

  103. Mori, M., M. Watanabe, H. Shiogama, J. Inoue, and M. Kimoto, 2014: Robust Arctic sea-ice influence on the frequent Eurasian cold winters in past decades. Nature Geoscience, 7, 869-873, doi:10.1038/ngeo2277.

  104. Ogura, T., M. Webb, M. Watanabe,H. Lambert, Y. Tsushima, and M. Sekiguchi, 2014: Importance of instantaneous radiative forcing to tropospheric adjustment. Clim. Dyn., 43, 1409-1421, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1955-x.

  105. Sato, K., J. Inoue, and M. Watanabe, 2014: Influence of the Gulf Stream on the Barents sea ice retreat and Eurasian coldness during early winter. Env. Res. Lett., 9, 84009-84016, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/084009.

  106. Shiogama, H., M. Watanabe, Y. Imada, M. Mori, Y. Kamae, M. Ishii, and M. Kimoto, 2014: An attribution of the June-July 2013 heat wave in the southwestern United States of America. SOLA, 10, 122-126, doi:10.2151/sola.2014-025.

  107. Watanabe, M., Y. Kamae, and M. Kimoto, 2014: Robust increase of the equatorial Pacific rainfall and its variability in a warmed climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 3227-3232, doi:10.1002/2014GL059692.

  108. Watanabe, M., H. Shiogama, H. Tatebe, M. Hayashi, M. Ishii, and M. Kimoto, 2014: Contribution of natural decadal variability to global-warming acceleration and hiatus. Nature Climate Change, 4, 893-897, doi:10.1038/Nclimate2355.

  109. Yokohata, T., J. D. Annan, M. Collins, C. S. Jackson, H. Shiogama, M. Watanabe, S. Emori, M. Yoshimori, M. Abe, M. J. Webb, and J. C. Hargreaves, 2014: Reliability and importance of structural diversity of climate model ensembles. Clim. Dyn., 41, 2745-2763, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1733-9.

  110. Yoshimori, M., M. Watanabe, A. Abe-Ouchi, H. Shiogama, and T. Ogura, 2014: Relative contribution of feedback processes to Arctic amplification of temperature change in MIROC GCM. Clim. Dyn., 42, 1613-1630, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1875-9.

  111. Yoshimori, M., A. Abe-Ouchi, M. Watanabe, A. Oka, and T. Ogura, 2014: Robust seasonality of Arctic warming processes in two different versions of MIROC GCM. J. Climate, 27, 6358-6375.

    2013

  112. Blackburn, M., D. L. Williamson, K. Nakajima, W. Ohfuchi, Y. O. Takahashi, Y.-Y. Hayashi, H. Nakamura, M. Ishiwatari, J. McGregor, H. Borth, V. Wirth, H. Frank, P. Bechtold, N. P. Wedi, H. Tomita, M. Satoh, M. Zhao, I. M. Held, M. H. Suarez, M.-I. Lee, M. Watanabe, M. Kimoto, Y. Liu, Z. Wang, A. Molod, K. Rajendran, A. Kitoh, and R. Stratton, 2013: The Aqua Planet Experiment (APE): Control SST simulation. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 91, doi:10.2151/jmsj.2013-A01, 1-15.

  113. Chikamoto, T., M. Kimoto, M. Ishii, T. Mochizuki, T. T. Sakamoto, H. Tatebe, Y. Komuro, M. Watanabe, T. Nozawa, H. Shiogama, M. Mori, S. Yasunaka, Y. Imada, 2013: An overview of decadal climate Predictability in a multi-model ensemble by climate model MIROC. Clim. Dyn., 40, 1201-1222, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1351-y.

  114. Demoto, S., M. Watanabe, and Y. Kamae, 2013: Mechanism of tropical low-cloud response to surface warming using weather and climate simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 2427-2432, doi:10.1002/grl.50474.2013.

  115. Hayasaki, M., R. Kawamura, M. Mori, and M. Watanabe, 2013: Response of extratropical cyclone activity to the Kuroshio large meander in northern winter. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1-5, doi:10.1002/grl.50546.

  116. Imada, Y., M. Watanabe, M. Mori, M. Kimoto, H. Shiogama, and M. Ishii, 2013: Contribution of atmospheric circulation change to the 2012 heavy rainfall in southern Japan. In "Explaining extreme events of 2012 from a climate perspective", Eds. Peterson, T., M. Hoerling, P. Stott, and S. Herring, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, S52.

  117. Jang, Y.-S., D. Kim, Y.-H. Kim, M. Watanabe, and F.-F. Jin, and J.-S. Kug, 2013: Simulation of two types of El Nino from different convective parameters. Asia-Pacific J. Atmos. Sci., 49, 193-199.

  118. Kamae, Y., and M. Watanabe, 2013: Tropospheric adjustment to increasing CO2: its timescale and the role of land-sea contrast. Clim. Dyn., 41, 3007-3024, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1555-1.

  119. Kanno, H., M. Watanabe, and E. Kanda, 2013: MIROC5 predictions of Yamase. J. Agric. Meteorol., 69, 117-125.

  120. Mori, M., M. Watanabe, and M. Kimoto, 2013: Nonlinear Hadley circulation response to the zonally asymmetric sea surface temperature in an aqua-planet GCM. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 91A, 269-291.

  121. Mori, M., M. Kimoto, M. Ishii, S. Yokoi, T. Mochizuki, Y. Chikamoto, M. Watanabe, T. Nozawa, H. Tatebe, T. T. Sakamoto, Y. Komuro, Y. Imada, and H. Koyam, 2013: Hindcast prediction and near-future projection of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific using CMIP5 near-term experiments with MIROC. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 91, 431-452.

  122. Ohba, M., H. Shiogama, T. Yokohata, and M. Watanabe, 2013: Impact of strong tropical volcanic eruption on ENSO simulated in MIROC. J. Climate, 26, 5169-5182, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00471.1.

  123. Shiogama, H., M. Watanabe, T. Ogura, T. Yokohata, and M. Kimoto, 2013: Multi-parameter multi-physics ensemble (MPMPE): A new approach for exploring the uncertainty of climate sensitivity. Atmos. Sci. Lett., doi:10.1002/asl2.472.

  124. Shiogama, H., M. Watanabe, and Coauthors, 2013: Physics parameter uncertainty and observational constraints of climate feedback: An ensemble coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM without flux corrections. Clim. Dyn., 39, 3041-3056, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1441-x.

  125. Shiogama, H., M. Watanabe, Y. Imada, M. Mori, M. Ishii, and M. Kimoto, 2013: An event attribution of the 2010 drought in the South Amazon region using the MIROC5 model. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 14, 170-175, doi:10.1002/asl2.435.

  126. Su, H., J. H. Jiang, C. Zhai, V. S. Perun, J. T. Shen, A. DelGenio, L. S. Nazarenko, L. Donner, L. Horowitz, C. Seman, C. Moncrette, J. Petch, M. Ringer, J. Cole, A. Gettelman, M. Watanabe, J.-L. Dufresne, L. Rotstayn, S. Jeffrey, T. Wu, H. Kawai, T. Koshiro, E. M. Volodin, M. Mesquita, T. Iversen, T. L'Ecuyer, J. P. Teixeira, and G. L. Stephens, 2013: Diagnosis of CMIP5 cloud simulations in relation to large-scale parameters using NASA 'A-Train' satellite observations and other datasets. J. Geophys. Res., 118, 2762-2780.

  127. Tanaka, K., H.-J. Kim, K. Saito, H. G. Takahashi, M. Watanabe, T. Yokohata, M. Kimoto, K. Takata, and T. Yasunari, 2013: How have both cultivation and warming influenced annual global isoprene and monoterpene emissions since the preindustrial era? Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 9703-9718.

  128. Watanabe, M., H. Shiogama, Y. Imada, M. Mori, M. Ishii, and M. Kimoto, 2013: Event attribution of the August 2010 Russian heat wave. SOLA, 9, 64-67, doi:10.2151/sola.2013-015

  129. Watanabe, M., Y. Kamae, M. Yoshimori, A. Oka, M. Sato, M. Ishii, T. Mochizuki, and M. Kimoto, 2013: Strengthening of ocean heat uptake efficiency associated with the recent climate hiatus. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3175-3179, doi:10.1002/grl.50541.

  130. Williamson, D. L., M. Blackburn, K. Nakajima, W. Ohfuchi, Y. O. Takahashi, Y.-Y. Hayashi, H. Nakamura, M. Ishiwatari, J. McGregor, H. Borth, V. Wirth, H. Frank, P. Bechtold, N. P. Wedi, H. Tomita, M. Satoh, M. Zhao, I. M. Held, M. H. Suarez, M.-I. Lee, M. Watanabe, M. Kimoto, Y. Liu, Z. Wang, A. Molod, K. Rajendran, A. Kitoh, and R. Stratton, 2013: The Aqua Planet Experiment (APE): Response to changed meridional SST profile. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 91, doi:10.2151/jmsj.2013-A03, 17-56.

  131. Williams, K. D., A. Bodas-Salcedo, M. Deque, S. Fermepin, B. Medeiros, M. Watanabe, C. Jacob, S. A. Klein, C. A. Senior, and D. L. Williamson, 2013: The Transpose AMIP II experiment and its application to the understanding of Sourthern Ocean cloud biases in climate models. J. Climate, 26, 3258-3274.

    2012

  132. Chikamoto, T., M. Kimoto, M. Ishii, M. Watanabe, T. Nozawa, T. Mochizuki, H. Tatebe, T. T. Sakamoto, Y. Komuro, H. Shiogama, M. Mori, S. Yasunaka, Y. Imada, H. Koyama, M. Nozu, and F.-F. Jin, 2012: Predictability of a stepwise shift in Pacific climate during the late 1990s in hindcast experiments using MIROC. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 90A, 1-21.

  133. Chikamoto, T., M. Kimoto, M. Watanabe, M. Ishii, and T. Mochizuki, 2012: Relationship between the Pacific and Atlantic stepwise climate change during the 1990s. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, doi:10.1029/2012GL053225.

  134. Ha, K.-J, J.-E. Chu, J.-Y. Lee, B. Wang, N. H. Saji, and M. Watanabe, 2012: What causes cool summer over northern central and east Asia and central North America during 2009? Env. Res. Lett., 7, 044015, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044015.

  135. Jiang, J. H., H. Su, C. Zhai, V. S. Perun, A. Del Genio, L. S. Nazarenko, L. J. Donner, L. Horowitz, C. Seman, J. Cole, A. Gttelman, M. Ringer, L. Rotstayn, S. Jeffrey, T. Wu, F. Brient, J.-L. Dufresne, H. Kawai, T. Koshiro, M. Watanabe, T. Lecuyer, W. G. Read, J. W. Waters, B. Tian, J. P. Teixeira, and G. L. Stephens, 2012: Evaluation of cloud and water vapor simulations in IPCC AR5 climate models using NASA "A-Train" satellite observations. J. Geophys. Res., 117, doi:10.1029/2011JD017237.

  136. Kamae, Y., and M. Watanabe, 2012: On the robustness of tropospheric adjustment in CMIP5 models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L23808, doi:10.1029/2012GL054275.

  137. Komuro, Y., T. Suzuki, M. Ishii, M. Watanabe, T. Nozawa, T. T. Sakamoto, T. Yokohata, T. Nishimura, K. Ogochi, H. Hasumi, S. Emori, and M. Kimoto, 2012: Sea-ice in twentieth-century simulations by new MIROC coupled models: A comparison between models with high resolution and with ice thickness distribution. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 90A, 213-232.

  138. Mochizuki, T., Chikamoto, T., M. Kimoto, M. Ishii, H. Tatebe, Y. Komuro, T. Sakamoto, M. Watanabe, and M. Mori, 2012: Decadal prediction using a recent series of MIROC global climate models. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 90A, 373-383.

  139. Ohba, M., and M. Watanabe, 2012: Role of the Indo-Pacific interbasin coupling in predicting asymmetric ENSO transition and duration. J. Climate, 25, 3321-3335.

  140. Okazaki, A., P. J. F. Yeh, K. Yoshimura, M. Watanabe, M. Kimoto, and T. Oki, 2012: Estimatetion of flood risk change under global warming using MIROC5 simultations and discharge probability index. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 90, 509-524.

  141. Tatebe, H., M. Ishii, T. Mochizuki, Y. Chikamoto, T. T. Sakamoto, Y. Komuro, M. Mori, S. Yasunaka, M. Watanabe, K. Ogochi, T. Suzuki, T. Nishimura, and M. Kimoto, 2012: The initialization of the MIROC climate models with hydographic data assimilation for decadal prediction. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 90A, 275-294.

  142. Watanabe, M., H. Shiogama, M. Yoshimori, T. Yokohata, T. Ogura, H. Okamoto, S. Emori, and M. Kimoto, 2012: Fast and slow timescales in the tropical low-cloud response to increasing CO2 in two climate models. Clim. Dyn., 39, 1627-1641, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1178-y. [pdf file]

  143. Watanabe, M., H. Shiogama, and Coauthors, 2012: Using a multi-physics ensemble for exploring diversity in cloud shortwave feedback in GCMs. J. Climate, 25, 5416-5431. [pdf file]

  144. Watanabe, M., and A. T. Wittenberg, 2012: A method for disentangling El Nino-mean state interaction. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, doi:10.1029/2012GL052013. [pdf file]

  145. Watanabe, M., J.-S. Kug, F.-F. Jin, M. Collins, M. Ohba, and A. T. Wittenberg, 2012: Uncertainty in the ENSO amplitude change from the past to future. Geophts. Res. Lett., 39, doi:10.1029/2012GL053305.

    2011

  146. Hirota, N., Y. N. Takayabu, M. Watanabe, and M. Kimoto, 2011: Precipitation reproducibility over tropical oceans and its relationship to the double ITCZ problem in CMIP3 and MIROC5 climate models. J. Climate, 24, 4859-4873.

  147. Kim, D., Y.-S. Jang, D.-H. Kim, Y.-H. Kim, M. Watanabe, F.-F. Jin, and J.-S. Kug, 2011: El Nino-Southern Oscillation sensitivity to cumulus entrainment in a coupled general circulation model. J. Geophys. Res., 116, doi:10.1029/2011JD016526.

  148. Kim, H.-J, K. Takata, B. Wang, M. Watanabe, M. Kimoto, T. Yokohata, and T. Yasunari, 2011: Global monsoon, El Nino, and their interannual linkage simulated by MIROC5 and the CMIP3 CGCMs. J. Climate, 24, 5604-5618.

  149. Lee, Y.-Y., J.-S. Kug, G.-H. Lim, and M. Watanabe, 2011: Eastward shift of the Pacific/North American pattern on an interdecadal time scale and an associated synoptic eddy feedback. Int. J. Climatol., 32, 1128-1134, doi:10.1002/joc.2329.

  150. Lestari, R. K., M. Watanabe, and M. Kimoto, 2011: Role of air-sea coupling in the South China Sea summer monsoon. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 89A, 283-290.

  151. Toyoda, T., and Coauthors, 2011: Impact of the assimilation of sea ice concentration data on an atmosphere-ocean-sea ice coupled simulation of the Arctic Ocean climate. SOLA, 7, 37-40, doi:10.1021/sola.2011-010.

  152. Watanabe, M., M. Chikira, Y. Imada, and M. Kimoto, 2011: Convective control of ENSO simulated in MIROC. J. Climate, 24, 543-562. [pdf file]

  153. Watanabe, M., H. Shiogama, T. Yokohata, T. Ogura, M. Yoshimori, S. Emori, and M. Kimoto, 2011: Constraints to the tropical low-cloud trends in historical climate simulations by MIROC. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 12, 288-293, doi:10.1002/asl.337. [pdf file]

  154. Yokoi, S., Y. N. Takayabu, K. Nishii, H. Nakamura, H. Endo, H. Ichikawa, T. Inoue, M. Kimoto, Y. Kosaka, T. Miyasaka, K. Oshima, N. Sato, Y. Tsushima, and M. Watanabe, 2011: Application of cluster analysis to climate model performance metrics. J. Appl. Met. and Clim., 50, 1666-1675.

  155. Yun, K.-S., S.-Y. Kim, K.-J. Ha, and M. Watanabe, 2011: Effects of sub-seasonal basic state changes on Rossby wave propagation during northern summer. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D24102, doi:10.1029/2011JD016258.

    2010

  156. Kodama, C., Y. Mochizuki, S. Hasegawa, T. Iwasaki, and M. Watanabe, 2010: Negative correlation between the interannual variability of the stationary and transient wave energy in the Northern Hemisphere. SOLA, 6, 37-40. doi:10.2151/sola.2010-010

  157. Koseki, S., and M. Watanabe, 2010: Atmospheric boundary layer response to the meso-scale SST anomalies in the Kuroshio extension. J. Climate, 23, 2492-2507.

  158. Koyama, H., and M. Watanabe, 2010: Reducing forecast errors due to model imperfections using ensemble Kalman filtering. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 3316-3332.

  159. Mochizuki, T., M. Ishii, M. Kimoto, Y. Chikamoto, M. Watanabe, T. Nozawa, T. Sakamoto, H. Shiogama, T. Awaji, N. Sugiura, T. Toyoda, S. Yasunaka, H. Tatebe, and M. Mori, 2010: Pacific decadal oscillation hindcasts relevant to near-term climate prediction. PNAS, 107, 1833-1837. doi:10.1073/pnas.0906531107.

  160. Watanabe, M., and Coauthors, 2010: Improved climate simulation by MIROC5: Mean states, variability, and climate sensitivity. J. Climate, 23, 6312-6335. [pdf file]

  161. Yasui, S., and M. Watanabe, 2010: Forcing mechanisms of the summertime circumglobal teleconnection in a dry AGCM. J. Climate, 23, 2093-2114. [pdf file]

    2009

  162. Kosaka, Y., H. Nakamura, M. Watanabe, and M. Kimoto, 2009: Analysis on the dynamics of a wave-like teleconnection pattern along the summertime Asian jet based on a reanalysis dataset and climate model simulations. J.Meteor.Soc.Japan, 87, 561-580.

  163. Watanabe, M., S. Emori, M. Satoh, and H. Miura, 2009: A PDF-based hybrid prognostic cloud scheme for general circulation models. Clim. Dyn., 33, 795-816, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0489-0. [pdf file]

  164. Watanabe, M., 2009: Self-limiting feedback between baroclinic waves and a NAO-like sheared zonal flow. Geophys.Res.Lett., 36, doi:10.1029/2009GL037176. [pdf file]

    2008

  165. Koseki, S, M. Watanabe, and M. Kimoto, 2008: Role of the midlatitude air-sea interaction in orographically forced climate. J.Meteor.Soc.Japan, 86, 335-351.

  166. Mori, M, and M. Watanabe, 2008: The growth and triggering mechanisms of the PNA: A MJO-PNA coherence. J.Meteor.Soc.Japan, 86, 213-236.

  167. Watanabe, M., 2008a: Two regimes of the equatorial warm pool. Part I: A simple tropical climate model. J.Climate, 21, 3533-3544. [pdf file]

  168. Watanabe, M., 2008b: Two regimes of the equatorial warm pool. Part II: Hybrid coupled GCM experiments. J.Climate, 21, 3545-3560. [pdf file]

    2007

  169. Annamalai, H., H. Okajima, and M. Watanabe, 2007: Possible impact of the Indian Ocean SST on the Northern Hemisphere circulation during El Nino. J.Climate, 20, 3164-3189.

  170. Watanabe, M., 2007: Reply to comments by B. A. Cash on "On the presence of annular variability in an aquaplanet model". Geophys.Res.Lett., 34, doi:10.1029/2006GL028669.

    2006

  171. Jin, F.-F., L.-L. Pan, and M. Watanabe, 2006a: Dynamics of synoptic eddy and low-frequency flow feedback. Part I: A linear closure. J.Atmos.Sci., 63, 1677-1694.

  172. Jin, F.-F., L.-L. Pan, and M. Watanabe, 2006b: Dynamics of synoptic eddy and low-frequency flow feedback. Part II: A theory for low-frequency modes. J.Atmos.Sci., 63, 1695-1708.

  173. Pan, L.-L., F.-F. Jin, and M. Watanabe, 2006: Dynamics of synoptic eddy and low-frequency flow feedback. Part III: Baroclinic model results. J.Atmos.Sci., 63, 1709-1725.

  174. Watanabe, M., F.-F. Jin, and L.-L. Pan, 2006: Accelerated iterative method for solving steady problems of linearized atmospheric models. J.Atmos.Sci., 63, 3366-3382. [pdf file]

    2005

  175. Shiogama, H., M. Watanabe, M. Kimoto, and T. Nozawa, 2005: Anthropogenic and natural forcing impacts on the ENSO-like decadal variability during the second half of the 20th century. JGeophys.Res.Lett., 32, doi:10.1029/2005GL023871.

  176. Watanabe, M., 2005: On the presence of annular variability in an aquaplanet model. Geophys.Res.Lett., 32, doi:10.1029/2004GL021869. [pdf file]

    2004

  177. Watanabe, M., and F.-F. Jin, 2004: Dynamical prototype of the Arctic Oscillation as revealed by a neutral singular vector. J.Climate, 17, 2119-2138. [pdf file]

  178. Watanabe, M., 2004: Asian jet waveguide and a downstream extension of the North Atlantic Oscillation. J.Climate, 17, 4674-4691. [pdf file]

    2003

  179. Watanabe, M. and F.-F. Jin, 2003: A moist linear baroclinic model: Coupled dynamical-convective response to El Nino. J.Climate, 16, 1121-1139. [pdf file]

    2002

  180. Watanabe, M., F.-F. Jin and M. Kimoto 2002: Tropical axisymmetric mode of variability in the atmospheric circulation: Dynamics as a neutral mode. J.Climate, 15, 1537-1554. [pdf file]

  181. Watanabe, M. and F.-F. Jin, 2002: Role of Indian Ocean warming in the development of the Philippine Sea anticyclone during El Nino. Geophys.Res.Lett., 29, 10.1029/2001GL014318 (DOI). [pdf file]

    2001

  182. Kimoto. M., F.-F. Jin, M. Watanabe and N. Yasutomi, 2001: Zonal-eddy coupling and a neutral mode theory for the Arctic Oscillation. Geophys.Res.Lett., 28, 737-740.

    2000

  183. Watanabe, M. and M. Kimoto, 2000a: Behavior of midlatitude decadal oscillations in a simple atmosphere-ocean system. J.Meteor.Soc.Japan, 78, 441-460.

  184. Watanabe, M. and M. Kimoto, 2000b: On the persistence of decadal SST anomalies in the North Atlantic. J.Climate, 13, 3017-3028.

  185. Watanabe, M. and M. Kimoto, 2000c: Atmosphere-ocean thermal coupling in the North Atlantic: A positive feedback. Quart.J.R.Met.Soc., 126, 3343-3369.

    1999

  186. Watanabe, M. and T. Nitta, 1999: Decadal changes in the atmospheric circulation and associated surface climate variations in the Northern Hemisphere winter. J.Climate, 12, 494-510.

  187. Watanabe, M., M. Kimoto, T. Nitta and M. Kachi, 1999: A comparison of decadal climate oscillations in the North Atlantic detected in observations and a coupled GCM. J.Climate, 12, 2920-2940.

  188. Watanabe, M. and M. Kimoto, 1999: Tropical-extratropical connection in the Atlantic atmosphere-ocean variability. Geophys.Res.Lett., 26, 2247-2250.

    1998

  189. Watanabe, M. and T. Nitta, 1998: Relative Impacts of snow and sea surface temperature anomalies on an extreme phase in the winter atmospheric circulation. J.Climate, 11, 2837-2857.

    1996

  190. Watanabe, M. and M. Shinoda, 1996: Long-term variability of Asian summer monsoon rainfall during 1946-1988. J.Meteor.Soc.Japan, 74, 923-934.


書籍

  1. 渡部雅浩, 2024: 本当に感動するサイエンス超入門！ 空のふしぎを解き明かす　天気はなぜ変わるのか (監修)．ニュートンプレス.

  2. 渡部雅浩, 2024: 気候変動と社会　基礎から学ぶ地球温暖化問題(分担執筆)．東京大学気候と社会連携研究機構(編）．東大出版会.

  3. 渡部雅浩, 2023: 素朴な疑問VS東大 「なぜ？」から始まる学術入門(分担執筆)．東京大学広報室(編）．KADOKAWA.

  4. 渡部雅浩, 2021: 文系のためのめっちゃやさしい天気(監修)．ニュートンプレス.

  5. 渡部雅浩, 2020: 地球・惑星・生命(分担執筆)．日本地球惑星科学連合編, 東京大学出版会.

  6. 渡部雅浩, 2020: 天気と気象　グラフィックヒストリー(監訳)．ニュートンプレス.

  7. 渡部雅浩, 2018: 絵でわかる地球温暖化. 講談社.

  8. 渡部雅浩, 2014: 地球温暖化—そのメカニズムと不確実性— (分担執筆). 朝倉書店.

  9. 渡部雅浩, 2014: 地球温暖化の辞典 (分担執筆). 丸善.

  10. 渡部雅浩, 木本昌秀, 2013: エルニーニョ・南方振動(ENSO)研究の現在(編著). 気象研究ノート228, 日本気象学会.

  11. 渡部雅浩, 2007: レジーム・シフト−気候変動と生物資源管理− (共著). 成山堂書店.

  12. 渡部雅浩, 2007: 地球温暖化 (分担執筆). 北大出版会.

  13. 渡部雅浩, 2005: 気象ハンドブック 第3版 (分担執筆). 朝倉書店.


その他の出版物

  1. 渡部雅浩, 2024: 特集：IPCC第6次評価報告書. ペトロテック, 2024年6月号.

  2. 渡部雅浩, 2023: IPCC WGI 第6次評価報告書の概要と課題. 学術の動向, 28, 17-23.

  3. 渡部雅浩, 2022: 気候モデルから地球システムモデルへ～気候シミュレーションの展開～. 岩波「科学」, 2022年5月号.

  4. 渡部雅浩, 2022: エネルギー収支でみた温暖化のメカニズム. 学術の動向, 27, 74-77.

  5. 渡部雅浩, 2022: 気候変動とこれからの世界. JEASニュース, 172, 14-15.

  6. 渡部雅浩, 2019: 地球温暖化は豪雨や猛暑にどう影響するか. 岩波「科学」, 2019年7月号.

  7. Guilyardi, E., A. Wittenberg, M. Balmaseda, W. Cai, M. Collins, M. McPhaden, M. Watanabe, and S.-W. Yeh, 2015: ENSO in a Changing Climate - Meeting summary of the 4th CLIVAR Workshop on the Evaluation of ENSO Processes in Climate Models. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97, 817-820, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00287.1

  8. 渡部雅浩, 2014: 近年の地球温暖化の「停滞」. JGL, 10, 9-11.

  9. 渡部雅浩, 2014: ハイエイタス. 天気, 61, 277-279.

  10. 吉森正和, 横畠徳太, 小倉知夫, 大石龍太, 河宮未知生, 塩竃秀夫, 対馬洋子, 小玉知央, 野田暁, 千喜良稔, 竹村俊彦, 佐藤正樹, 阿部彩子, 渡部雅浩, 木本昌秀, 2012: 気候感度. Part 1: 気候フィードバックの概念と理解の現状. 天気, 59, 5-22.

  11. 吉森正和, 横畠徳太, 小倉知夫, 大石龍太, 河宮未知生, 塩竃秀夫, 対馬洋子, 小玉知央, 野田暁, 千喜良稔, 竹村俊彦, 佐藤正樹, 阿部彩子, 渡部雅浩, 木本昌秀, 2012: 気候感度. Part 2: 不確実性の低減への努力. 天気, 59, 91-109.

  12. 吉森正和, 横畠徳太, 小倉知夫, 大石龍太, 河宮未知生, 塩竃秀夫, 対馬洋子, 小玉知央, 野田暁, 千喜良稔, 竹村俊彦, 佐藤正樹, 阿部彩子, 渡部雅浩, 木本昌秀, 2012: 気候感度. Part 3: 古環境からの検証. 天気, 59, 143-149.

  13. 渡部雅浩, 今田由紀子, 2011: CLIVAR ENSOワークショップ報告. 天気, 58, 158-164.

  14. 今田由紀子, 渡部雅浩, 2011: ENSOメトリック. 天気, 58, 661-664.

  15. 小山博司，森正人，渡部雅浩, 2007: 2005年12月の「北極振動」の励起と予測可能性. グロースベッター，45, 15-35.

  16. 前田修平，佐藤均，渡部雅浩, 2007: 2005年12月の熱帯対流活動と日本付近の異常低温. 気象研究ノ−ト，216, 89-94.

  17. 森正人，小山博司，渡部雅浩, 2007: 2005年12月の「北極振動」の励起と予測可能性. 気象研究ノ−ト，216, 221-240.

  18. 渡部雅浩, 2006: 2005〜2006年の寒冬のメカニズム 大雪はなぜ起こったか? 月刊養殖, 540, 18-21.

  19. 栗田直幸，江守正多，遠藤崇浩，鼎信次郎，篠田太郎，鈴木健太郎，樋口篤志，吉村圭，渡部雅浩, 2006: 第2回沼口敦さんシンポジウム 「水循環環境科学のアプローチ」報告. 天気, 53, 791-798.

  20. 木本昌秀・渡部雅浩, 2004: 北極振動の中立モード理論. 気象研究ノート, 206, 11-22.

  21. 渡部雅浩・木本昌秀, 2004: NAOの力学と長周期変動. 気象研究ノート, 206, 23-48.

  22. 渡部雅浩, 2002: NCAR Summer Colloquium参加報告. 天気, 49, 259-262.

  23. 渡部雅浩, 2002: 北大西洋における大気海洋系の熱的結合と相互作用 -2001年度山本・正野論文賞記念講演-. 天気, 49, 819-832.

  24. 渡部雅浩・木本昌秀, 2001: 北大西洋10年規模変動のメカニズムについて . 月刊海洋/号外特集, 24, 116-122.

  25. 木本昌秀・Fei-fei Jin・渡部雅浩・安富奈津子, 2001: 北極振動の力学 . 月刊海洋/号外特集, 24, 157-161.

  26. 渡部雅浩, 2001: 北大西洋10年規模変動にまつわるプロセス. グロースベッ ター, 39, 33-48.

  27. Watanabe, M., 2000: Mechanisms of the decadal climate variability in the midlatitude atmosphere-ocean system. CCSR Report, No. 12, 158pp.

  28. 渡部雅浩・新田勍・木本昌秀・可知美佐子, 1998: 北大西洋10年規模変動 - 観測とモデル -. 気候システム研究叢書 No. 3, 197-209.

  29. 渡部雅浩・新田勍, 1997: 1989年の大気循環のシフト - 数値実験 -. 月刊海洋, 29, 699-703.

  30. 渡部雅浩・新田勍, 1997: 冬季北半球における近年の気候変化と10年規模 変動. 天気, 44, 207-212.

  31. Watanabe, M. and T. Nitta, 1997: Abrupt shifts in the atmospheric circulation and associated decadal climate variations in the Northern Hemisphere winter: A diagnistic study. CCSR Report, No. 6, 104pp.

  32. 沖大幹・松山洋・渡部雅浩, 1996: 異なった視点からのGEWEX/GAME. 天気, 43, 61-67.


学会での招待講演

  1. Watanabe, M., 2024: Tropical Pacific SST pattern problem. China-Japan-Korea Ocean and Earth System Science Symposium, Qingdao, China, 7-9 November, 2024.

  2. 渡部雅浩, 2024: IPCC WGI AR6のご紹介, 気候変動を学ぶCONSEOシリーズ, Japan Climate Tech Lab, 2024年10月23日.

  3. 渡部雅浩, 2024: 近年の熱帯太平洋海面水温パターン変化は謎, 第12回海中海底工学フォーラム, 東京大学大気海洋研究所講堂, 2024年10月11日.

  4. Watanabe, M., 2024: Tropical Pacific SST pattern problem. CLIVAR Workshop on Interaction among the tropical basins: Observations and simulations, Seoul, Korea, 22 June, 2024.

  5. Watanabe, M., 2024: Value of climate models in attributing and projecting large-scale climate changes. AOGS AS Lecture, PyeongChang, Korea, 25 June, 2024.

  6. 渡部雅浩, 2024: 気候科学における数値モデリング：これまでとこれから, 日本気象学会2024年春季大会シンポジウム「変わりゆく気候科学における数値モデリングの役割」, 東京大学一条ホール, 2024年5月24日.

  7. 渡部雅浩, 2024: 気候変動の科学と大学の役割, 第4会琉大SDGsシンポジウム, 琉球大学, 2024年3月28日.

  8. Watanabe, M., 2024: Tropical Pacific SST pattern problem. MPI Special Seminar, Hamburg, Germany, 14 March, 2024.

  9. Watanabe, M., 2023: Attributing and projecting changes in extreme weather events over East Asia. KMS 60th Anniversary Symposium, Pusan, Korea, 19 April, 2023.

  10. Watanabe, M., T. Saga, et al., 2022: Importance of constraining the pattern effect during the historical period for future temperature projection. AGU Fall Meeting, Online, 17 December, 2022.

  11. 渡部雅浩, 2022: 気候変動緩和に資する基盤的温暖化研究, エネルギー総合学連携研究機構x気候と社会連携研究機構合同シンポジウム「気候変動への緩和策と対応策」, 東京大学伊藤国際学術ホール, 2022年12月22日.

  12. 渡部雅浩, 2022: How could AI help climate change studies? 第3回日独仏AIシンポジウム, 日本科学未来館, 2022年10月27-28日.

  13. 渡部雅浩, 2022: 地球温暖化の理解と予測に基づく海洋環境の変化, 東京大学海洋アライアンス「東京大学の海研究」シンポジウム, 東京大学農学部一条ホール, 2022年10月18日.

  14. 渡部雅浩, 2022: IPCC WGI 第6次評価報告書の概要～社会へのメッセージ～, 化学工学会 第53回秋季大会 環境部会システム分科会シンポジウム「IPCC第6次報告書からのメッセージ」, 信州大学長野キャンパス, 2022年9月16日.

  15. 渡部雅浩, 2022: 真鍋先生が拓いた気候モデリングと温暖化研究, エネルギー・資源学会2022年度第2回エネルギー政策懇話会「気候モデル研究の系譜とその政策的意義」, 東京ガス本社ビル, 2022年7月29日.

  16. 渡部雅浩, 2022: 真鍋先生が拓いた気候モデリングと温暖化研究―その後の発展, ―日本気象学会2022年度春季大会「真鍋淑郎先生ノーベル賞受賞記念特別公開シンポジウム」, オンライン, 2022年5月21日.

  17. 渡部雅浩, 2022: IPCC WGI 第6次評価報告書の概要, IPCC報告書連携シンポジウム「気候変動の影響はどうなる？ どう対応する？」, オンライン, 2022年4月26日.

  18. 渡部雅浩, 2022: IPCC WGI 第6次評価報告書の概要と課題, 学術フォーラム「カーボンニュートラル社会へのシステム転換─学術の挑戦─, オンライン, 2022年3月13日.

  19. Watanabe, M., Y. Imada, et al., 2021: Attributing extreme weather events over East Asia: Heatwave. Northeast Asian Symposium, Online, 4-5 November, 2021.

  20. 渡部雅浩, 2021: 10年規模気候変動予測：現状と今後の挑戦, 科学技術未来戦略ワークショップ, オンライン, 2021年11月2日.

  21. Watanabe, M., 2019: Weather extremes in a warming climate. Sympojium on Heatwaves, Seoul, Korea, 23-24 July, 2019.

  22. Watanabe, M., 2019: Weather extremes in a warming climate. East Asian workshop on Climate Dynamics, Pusan, Korea, 22-24 May, 2019.

  23. 渡部雅浩, 2019: 地球温暖化で異常気象はどう変わるか？ 日本気象学会公開気象講演会, 代々木オリンピックセンター, 2019年5月18日.

  24. Watanabe, M., 2019: Weather extremes in a warming climate. PyeongChang Forum, Pyeong Chang, Korea, 14-15 February, 2019.

  25. Watanabe, M., 2018: Weather and climate change attribution studies using GCMs. 2018 LASG Summer School on Climate System Model Development and Application, Beijing, 12-16 July, 2018.

  26. Watanabe, M., 2018: Low clouds linking equilibrium climate sensitivity to hydrological sensitivity. EGU2018, Vienna, 6-9 April, 2018.

  27. Watanabe, M., 2017: Attribution of recent intensification in the Pacific trade wind. Fourth Santa Fe Conference on Global and Regional Climate Change, Santa Fe, 5-10 February, 2017.

  28. Watanabe, M., 2016: Recent intensification of the Pacific trade wind: A possible linkage to Atlantic multidecadal variability. ICTP workshop on teleconnection in the present and future climate, Trieste, 24-28 October, 2016.

  29. Watanabe, M., 2016: How can we explain possible human contribution to weather events? AOGS2016, Beijing, August 4, 2016.

  30. 渡部雅浩, 2016: 近年の気候変化のメカニズムと要因分析. JpGUスペシャルレクチャー, 幕張メッセ, 2016年5月23日.

  31. Watanabe, M., 2016: Attribution of the tropical Pacific climate change over the past two decades. 7th EU-Japan workshop on climate change research, Tokyo, 26-27 April, 2016.

  32. 渡部雅浩, 2016: 地球温暖化の停滞と加速: われわれはどこまで理解しているか. 日本海洋学会, 東京大学, 2016年3月.

  33. 渡部雅浩, 2016: 地球温暖化と海洋の変動. 日本海洋工学会パネル「海洋における気候変動の影響とその対応」, 日本大学, 2016年1月.

  34. Watanabe, M., 2015: Significant sulphate aerosol impact on Atlantic multidecadal climate variability. AOGS2015, Singapore, August 5, 2015.

  35. Watanabe, M., 2015: Roles of internal and external processes in the Atantic multidecadal variability. IUGG2015, Prague, June 27, 2015.

  36. Watanabe, M., 2015: Model-based climate research on global change: Challenges for the future. JpGU Union Session "Geosicence Ahead", Tokyo, May 26, 2015.

  37. 渡部雅浩, 2015: 地球温暖化の「停滞」：温暖化研究における意味. 日本気象学会2015年春季大会シンポジウム, つくばエポカル, 2015年5月.

  38. Watanabe, M., 2014: Global warming hiatus: Its mechanisms and role of internal decadal variability. Second East Asian winter seasonal outlook forum, Tokyo, November 29-31, 2014.

  39. Watanabe, M., 2014: Modeling group's perspective: MIROC and NICAM. WGCM 18th session, Grainau, Germany, October 9-10, 2014.

  40. Watanabe, M., 2014: Contribution of natural decadal variability to global warming acceleration and hiatus. Ocean heat uptake workshop, Southampton, UK, October 1-3, 2014.

  41. Watanabe, M., 2014: Climate sensitivity and feedback studies in the MIROC group Norway-Japan Marine Seminar, Tokyo, June 4-5, 2014.

  42. Watanabe, M., 2014: How can we identify, attribute, and effectively use climate model biases? WCRP Grand Challenge wokshop on cloud, circulation and climate sensitivity, Schloss Rindberg, Germany, March 24-28, 2014.

  43. Watanabe, M., 2014: Toward reliable projection of the regional climate variability in a warming climate. Toward predictive dynamics of regional climate change, La Jolla, February 20-21, 2014.

  44. Watanabe, M., 2013: Decadal prediction and predictability: Lessons from CMIP5. RIMS International conference on theoretical aspects of variability and predictability in weather and climate systems, Kyoto, October 22-25, 2013.

  45. 渡部雅浩, 2013: エルニーニョと地球温暖化. 日本海洋学会2013年秋季大会シンポジウム, 北海道大学, 2013年9月.

  46. Watanabe, M., 2013: Review for CMIP5 high-resolution time slice experiments. Next generation climate change experiments needed to advance knowledge and for assessment of CMIP6, Aspen, August 4-9, 2013.

  47. Watanabe, M., 2013: Land-sea thermal contrast and summer atmospheric circulation over East Asia in a warmed climate. 12th East Asian Climate conference, Busan, July 1-3, 2013.

  48. Watanabe, M., 2013: Equatorial mean precipitation and ENSO in CMIP5 models: Its diversity and causes of errors. JpGU, Tokyo, May 24, 2013.

  49. Watanabe, M., and K. Yamazaki, 2013: Effects of extratropical warming on ENSO amplitudes in a GCM historical ensemble. Third CLIVAR WS "New Strategies for Evaluating ENSO Processes in Climate Models", Hobart, January 21-23, 2013.

  50. Watanabe, M., J.-S. Kug, F.-F. Jin, M. Collins, M. Ohba, and A. T. Wittenberg, 2012: Attributing changing ENSO amplitudes in the past and present. WCRP workshop on coupled model intercomparison project phase5 (CMIP5) model analysis, Honolulu, March 5-9, 2012.

  51. Watanabe, M., 2012: Modeling activity of the MIROC group for climate feedback and sensitivity studies. The 14th international meeting on next generation models for climate change - climate 2012 -, Maui, March 12-15, 2012.

  52. 渡部雅浩, 2012: 気象と気候の間で -日本気象学会賞受賞記念講演-. 日本気象学会2012年度春季大会, つくば国際会議場, 2012年5月28日.

  53. Watanabe, M., 2012: Evaluating and understanding climate feedback and sensitivity in different types of model ensembles. 2012 LASG summer symposium, Xi'ning, July 3-5, 2012.

  54. Watanabe, M., 2012: Processes controlling equilibrium climate sensitivity in model ensembles. AOGS-AGU (WPGM) joint assembly, Singapore, August 13-17, 2012.

  55. Watanabe, M., 2012: Changing ENSO amplitudes in the past and present. AOGS-AGU (WPGM) joint assembly, Singapore, August 13-17, 2012.

  56. 渡部雅浩, 2012: 気候のモデリング：決定論的? 確率論的? 日本気象学会2012年秋季大会, 北海道大学, 2012年11月.

  57. Watanabe, M., 2011: Constraints to the tropical low-cloud response to increasing CO2 in climate models. Joint Yonsei CTL-AORI-Hanyang-KORDI workshop on climate change and variability, Gangwondo, 20-22 February, 2011.

  58. Watanabe, M., 2011: Origin and dynamics of the circumglobal teleconnection pattern. IUGG2011, Melbourne, June 28-July 7, 2011.

  59. Watanabe, M., 2011: Comprehensive climate modeling linking structural and parametric uncertainties. Workshop on "Hierarchical modeling of climate", Trieste, July 18-22, 2011.

  60. Watanabe, M., 2011: Circumglobal teleconnection pattern relevant to the seasonal predictability over East Asia. 12th joint meeting for the seasonal prediction of the East Asian winter monsoon, Tokyo, November 10-11, 2011.

  61. Yokohata, T., M. Watanabe, et al. 2011: Understanding and validation of cloud response to CO2 increase using state-of-the-art climate model ensembles. AGU fall meeting, December 6, 2011.

  62. 渡部雅浩, 2010: 気候システムにおける海洋. 海洋アライアンス第5回シンポジウム「地球システムとしての海」, 東京大学小柴ホール, 2010年7月.

  63. 渡部雅浩, 2010: 気候変化シミュレーションにおけるアジアモンスーン：現状と方向性. モンスーンサイエンスWS, JAMSTEC東京事務所, 2010年8月.

  64. Watanabe, M., M. Chikira, Y. Imada, and M. Kimoto, 2010: Convective control of ENSO simulated by MIROC. Korea-Japan joint WS on climate system modeling, Ansan, 27-28 September, 2010.

  65. Watanabe, M., 2010: ENSO simulation in MIROC: Perspectives toward CMIP5. Second CLIVAR WS "New Strategies for Evaluating ENSO Processes in Climate Models", Paris, 17-19 November, 2010.

  66. Watanabe, M., 2009: Challenges in current climate modeling toward AR5. UAW 2009, Seoul, June, 2009.

  67. Watanabe, M., 2009: Japanese climate modeling activity toward AR5. ICISTS-KAIST conference, Seoul, 20-23 August, 2009.

  68. Koyama, H. and M. Watanabe, 2009: Reducing forecast errors due to model imperfectness using ensemble Kalman filtering. AOGS 2009, Singapole, August, 2009.

  69. Watanabe, M., 2008: A possible modal view for understanding extratropical climate variability. UAW 2008, Chiba, July, 2008.

  70. Watanabe, M., 2006: Interbasin coupling and a birth of the equatorial warm pool. International ENSO workshop, Seoul, 12-13 September 2006.

  71. Watanabe, M., 2006: Modeling clouds in GCMs: its difficulty and current approaches. 東北大学21世紀COEプログラム「先端地球科学技術による地球の未来像創出」シンポジウム " Climate Change: Past and Future", Sendai, 6-9 November 2006.

  72. 渡部雅浩, 2003: 北極振動はやはり3次元基本場の特異モードか? 日本気象学会2003年春季大会, つくば国際会議場, 2003年5月.

  73. Watanabe, M., 2003: Possible processes affecting predictability of the East Asian winter climate. Joint Meeting for Seasonal Prediction of the East Asian Winter Monsoon, Tokyo, 11-13 November 2003.


その他の招待講演

  1. 渡部雅浩, 2023: 気候変動の科学と報道. GSCC-JCLPメディアブリーフィング, オンライン, 2023年9月13日.

  2. 渡部雅浩, 2023: 気候変動の科学―基礎研究と社会貢献を両立する―. 東進ハイスクール「大学学部研究会」講義, オンライン, 2023年6月30日.

  3. 渡部雅浩, 2022: 気候変動緩和に資する基盤的温暖化研究. エネルギー総合学連携研究機構x気候と社会連携研究機構合同シンポジウム, オンライン, 2022年12月22日.

  4. 渡部雅浩, 2022: 地球温暖化の物理はどこまで分かったか～眞鍋博士の時代から現在まで～. 東京大学理学部臨時講演会2022「真鍋淑郎博士ノーベル物理学賞受賞記念講演会」, オンライン, 2022年2月11日.

  5. 渡部雅浩, 2022: 深刻度増した「地球温暖化」のリアル 暮らしの根幹に関わる環境・社会課題をIPCC報告書執筆者が解説. 東京リカレントナビ, オンライン, 2022年3月25日.

  6. 渡部雅浩, 2021: IPCC第6次評価報告書の概要―社会へのメッセージ. 2021年気象学会九州支部気象教室, オンライン, 2021年12月19日.

  7. 渡部雅浩, 2021: 最新科学が答える！　気候変動で地球はこれからどうなるの？.「子供の科学」オンライン講演会, 2021年12月5日.

  8. 渡部雅浩, 2021: 地球温暖化の最新の知見と今後の見通し. 2021年度東京海上研究所オンラインセミナー「地球温暖化の最新の知見と脱炭素社会に向けた企業の取組」, オンライン, 2021年10月21日.

  9. 渡部雅浩, 2021: 1時間でわかるIPCC最新報告書～社会へどうつたえるか～. 気象キャスターネットワーク講演会, オンライン, 2021年10月9日.

  10. 渡部雅浩, 2021: IPCC AR6の概要～AR5以降なにが分かったか～. 文科省統合プログラム一般公開シンポジウム, オンライン, 2021年8月31日.

  11. 渡部雅浩, 2019: 地球温暖化の現状と予測～社会の抱えるリスク～. 公開シンポジウム「エネルギー社会と原子力」, 伊藤謝恩ホール, 2019年12月22日.

  12. 渡部雅浩, 2019: 異常気象と地球温暖化-最新の気候科学の知見から-. 朝日カルチャーセンター, 新宿住友ビル, 2019年1月26日.

  13. 渡部雅浩, 2019: 地球温暖化と異常気象〜われわれは今なにがいえるか〜. 大気海洋研究所気候システム研究系シンポジウム「気候研究の現状と展望」, 東京大学伊藤謝恩ホール, 2018年12月26日.

  14. 渡部雅浩, 2017: 地球温暖化の加速と停滞：われわれはどこまで理解したか. 地球環境技術懇談会, 大阪科学技術センター, 2017年2月16日.

  15. 渡部雅浩, 2016: ENSO, 地球温暖化, 気候モデリングもろもろ. 気象夏の学校2016, 八王子セミナーハウス, 2016年8月30日.

  16. 渡部雅浩, 2016: エルニーニョと地球温暖化. 日本気象学会夏季大学, 気象庁, 2016年7月30日.

  17. 渡部雅浩, 2016: エルニーニョ現象と地球温暖化. 気候講演会「エルニーニョがもたらす世界図」, 気象庁, 2016年1月.

  18. 渡部雅浩, 2016: 地球温暖化予測の現状とこれから. 日本技術士会講演会, 東京, 2016年1月.

  19. Watanabe, M., 2015: How can we explain possible human contribution to individual weather events? WMO-IPCC Tokyo Workshop for Weather Presenters. Tokyo, November 11-12, 2015.

  20. 渡部雅浩, 2015: 地球温暖化予測研究の現状と課題. 日本気象学会夏季大学, 気象庁, 2015年8月1日.

  21. 渡部雅浩, 2013: 地球温暖化と近年の異常気象. 日本地球惑星科学連合一般講演会, 東京大学, 2013年11月.

  22. 渡部雅浩, 2013: 近年の気候変化を「仕分け」する ─ 温暖化研究の新たな展開. 文部科学省気候変動リスク情報創生プログラム一般講演会, 国連大学, 2013年9月.

  23. 渡部雅浩, 2012: エルニーニョとその全球的な影響. 名古屋大学地球水循環研究センター公開講演会, 名古屋大学, 2012年12月.

  24. 渡部雅浩, 2011: 気候変動と異常気象. 三菱UFJ次世代交流会, 三菱UFJ本社, 2011年5月.

  25. 渡部雅浩, 2012: 地球温暖化と異常気象. 国際科学技術財団「やさしい科学技術セミナー」, 六本木泉ガーデン, 2012年6月.

  26. Watanabe, M., et al. 2011: Development, verification, and natural variability in MIROC5. GMAO seminar at Goddard Space Flight Center, Washington DC, November 15, 2011.

  27. Watanabe, M., et al. 2011: Development, verification, and natural variability in MIROC5. EMC seminar at NCEP, Washington DC, November 16, 2011.

  28. 渡部雅浩, 2011: 気候変化と異常気象. 伊藤忠シンポジウム, 伊藤忠東京/大阪本社, 2011年2月.

  29. 渡部雅浩, 2010: 気候変動と異常気象. 一般講演会「異常気象の謎に挑む」, 東京大学安田講堂, 2010年11月.

  30. 渡部雅浩, 2009: 変わりゆく気候, 変わりゆく気候研究. 東京大学気候システム研究センター公開講座, 東京大学安田講堂, 2009年11月.

  31. 渡部雅浩, 2007: マルチスケール系としての気候のモデル化. 分子科学研究所研究会「分子科学における連成シミュレーションの基礎理論と応用」, 愛知, 2007年8月.

  32. 渡部雅浩, 2006: 地球温暖化とは 〜地球シミュレータを用いた温暖化予測最前線. 温暖化タウンフォーラム, 札幌, 2006年3月.

  33. 渡部雅浩, 2006: 気候形成・気候変動における動的な水の役割. 第2回 沼口敦さん記念シンポジウム, 東京, 2006年3月.

  34. 渡部雅浩, 2006: 気候システムの物理とモデリング. 京都大学基礎物理学研究所研究会「環境物理学-先端境界領域の創出へ向けて-」, 京都, 2006年6月.


プレスリリース

  1. 最近40年の太平洋赤道貿易風の強化の起源が明らかに―熱帯外の海水温変動からの遠隔影響で説明可能であることを実証, 2024年8月29日.

  2. 熱帯太平洋の温暖化パターンは時とともに変化する, 2024年6月13日.

  3. 令和4年6月下旬から7月初めの記録的な高温に地球温暖化が与えた影響に関する研究に取り組んでいます, 2022年9月6日.

  4. 温室効果ガス排出量を削減したシナリオにおいても北極温暖化増幅への考慮が必要, 2022年2月28日.

  5. 21世紀後半までの降水量変化予測の不確実性を低減することに初めて成功しました, 2022年2月24日.

  6. 黒潮とメキシコ湾流の同期現象を発見～大気と海洋の相互影響によってもたらされる異常気象の解明に道～, 2021年10月15日.

  7. 強いエルニーニョが2年間続くラニーニャを引き起こすことを解明, 2021年8月25日.

  8. 地球温暖化予測において雲減少による温暖化の加速効果が過小評価 －対流活動に着目して予測の不確かさを減らす－, 2021年6月30日.

  9. 過去の赤道太平洋海面水温の変化が示唆する将来の温暖化増幅, 2020年10月27日.

  10. 地球温暖化が近年の日本の豪雨に与えた影響を評価しました, 2020年10月21日.

  11. CO2に対する気候感度の不確実幅が低減 ～国際研究チームの4年がかりの研究による成果～, 2020年8月4日.

  12. 平成30年7月の記録的な猛暑に地球温暖化が与えた影響と猛暑発生の将来見通し, 2019年5月22日.

  13. 冬季ユーラシア大陸中緯度域における寒冷化の要因分析 〜北極海の海氷減少が寒冷化の約44%を説明〜, 2019年1月15日.

  14. 下層雲が繋ぐ温暖化時の気温と降水量の変化, 2018年9月17日.

  15. 過去20年間の太平洋貿易風の加速に対する硫酸性エアロゾルの重要な役割, 2016年4月26日.

  16. ユーラシア大陸中緯度域で頻発している寒冬の要因分析〜北極海の海氷の減少により寒冬になる確率は2倍〜, 2014年10月27日.

  17. 地球温暖化の停滞現象（ハイエイタス）の要因究明〜2000年代の気温変化の3割は自然の変動〜, 2014年9月1日.

  18. メキシコ湾流の流路変化がもたらす北極海の海氷減少とユーラシア大陸の異常寒波, 2014年8月16日.

  19. 近年の北半球中高緯度における猛暑発生頻度の増加要因を解明, 2014年7月28日.

  20. 近年の地球温暖化の停滞は海洋熱吸収の増大によるものか, 2013年7月22日.

  21. 「2010年夏季の天候再現実験に成功　— 近年の海水温上昇が猛暑を底上げ —」, 2010年11月19日.


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